wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
THE LESLIE–ADM INVESTOR
SERVICES CROP SURVEY
Soybean And Corn Production Estimate
As Of November 1 Conditions
SOYBEANS: On November 1, a U.S. soybean crop of 2,728,643,000 bushels was indicated by our survey. Such compares with last season's 2,382,364,000 and the record in 1994 of 2,516,694,000. The past five-year average is 2,227,437,000. The smallest crop during the past five years was 1,870,958,000 in 1993. The indicated average yield of 39.1 bushels per acre compares with last season's 37.6 bushels. The 1994 record 41.4 bushels; the past five-year average is 36.9 bushels. The poorest yield as 32.6 bushels in 1993. The USDA last month saw 2.722 billion bushels.
Soybean harvesting in the U.S. on November 1 at 89% compared with the normal progress of 85%. This indicated that about 300 million bushels remained to be cut versus the normal total of around 400 million. Harvesting in Iowa was 99% done, Illinois 98%, Indiana 96%, Ohio 95%, Michigan 87%, Minnesota 99%, Nebraska 92%, Missouri 82%, Arkansas 65%, Mississippi 85% and North Carolina 16%. Lower yields that expected last month are reported from Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan and Arkansas. Better yields are reported from Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, S. Dakota and Kansas.
SOYBEAN SUPPLIES AND DEMANDS: The old-crop carryover on August 31, 1997, is USDA estimated at 132 million bushels. This and a production of 2.729 billion bushels will create a supply of 2.861 billion. The USDA is projecting new season demand at 2.589 billion. Such suggests a year-from-now carryover of 272 million (versus the 132 million carryover on August 31, 1997). The USDA expects farm prices to average $6.30 per bushel this season versus $7.38 during the season which just ended.
CORN: Production as of November 1 conditions was indicated at 9,280,305,000 bushels, according to our survey of elevator managers. Such compares with 9,293,435,000 last season. The past five-year average is 8,516,643,000. The high during that period was 10,102,735,000 bushels in 1994; the low was 6,336,470,000 in 1993. The indicated yield of 125.3 bushels per acre compares with last season's 127.1 bushels, the five-year average of 122.3 and the 1994 record of 138.6 bushels. The poorest yield was 100.7 bushels in 1993. USDA last month saw 9.312 billion bushels.
The U.S. corn crop on November 1 was 75% harvested versus the normal progress of 64%. This indicated that approximately 2.328 billion bushels were still in the fields versus the normal for 3.352 billion. Iowa was 84% done versus its usual 63%, Illinois 89% versus 75%, Indiana 59% versus 60%, Ohio 41% versus 50%, Michigan 15% versus 36%, Wisconsin 41% versus 45%, Minnesota 90% versus 60%, Nebraska 66% versus 62% and Missouri 87% versus 75%. Better yields that expected a month ago are reported from Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin and Kansas. Lower yields from Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Missouri. Corn producers and traders now await word as to whether or not the 25% to-be-harvested corn maintains the November 1 U.S. yield outlook.
CORN SUPPLIES AND DEMANDS: When a corn crop of 9.280 billion bushels is added to the USDA's August 31 carryover of 884 million, a season supply of 10.164 billion bushels is indicated. The latest USDA estimate of new season demand is for 9.425 billion. If such develops, the August 31, 1998, carryover will total 739 million bushels (versus 884 million this August 31). The USDA expects a new season average farm price of $2.75 versus $2.70 during the season which just ended.
U.S. Production
(in thousand bushels)
Leslie USDA USDA 11/1/97 10/1/97 1996 Soybean 2,728,643 2,721,843 2,382,364 Corn 9,280,305 9,311,705 9,293,435
November 5, 1997 The Leslie Analytical Organization, Inc.
141 W. Jackson Blvd., Chicago, Illinois
Added to the WWW 11-07-97
Last updated on 11-08-97
Hosted by:
One Crossroads Place
610 West Maple Ave, Suite WWW
Independence, MO 64050
(816) 252-4080
sysop@kcmo.com