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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, November 1, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 7.1% —0.4% 6.8% 0.7% Same-Store Sales 4.2% —0.2% 4.0% 0.7%
The Redbook total- store average in the fourth and final week of retail October declined to 7.1% from 7.5% the previous week. However, the third of three consecutive weeks of stronger sales after a soft opening week continued to raise October's average, which ended at 6.8%, or 0.7% better than September. This was slightly better than our retailer sample's (and Redbook's) targets of 6.7% and 0.6% respectively.
Sales appeared to lose some of their recent momentum in the final week. Certain retailers said the strong demand for apparel which drove business in the previous two weeks, had flattened, and even those companies which continued to post double-digit gains in soft-line categories generally noted a tailing-off by the week-end. The week also was affected (probably negatively on balance) by Halloween, which boosted volume at those stores that cater to it, but kept shoppers away on Friday, typically an important shopping day. (Some retailers said they planned for, and recorded, negative weekly numbers at certain outlets because of Halloween.) In either case, there was a sense that the sharp weather-related upturn in apparel sales seen during October was ending, and attention was increasingly being focused on the major end-of-year landmarks of Thanksgiving and Christmas, and their holiday-related promotional and seasonal features.
While our sample ended ahead of plan in October, the final month of the retail quarter, we estimate that after September's weakness, its aggregate third-quarter sales target was not met. Early indications are that fourth-quarter targets will be set slightly lower. We also note that the sales base for retail November, commencing next week, is somewhat below October's, and the month-to-month breakeven level for the total-score average will be 8.2%.
The same-store average for the latest week was 4.2%, and the same-store month-to-month change versus September rose to 0.7% from 0.6%.
October Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Total Sales +6.7% +0.6% +6.7% +0.6% Same-Store Sales +3.9% +0.7% +3.9% +0.7%November 4, 1997Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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