The composite index of leading indicators showed a rebound from last month's decline by increasing 0.3 percent in May to 103.8 (1992 equals 100), according to preliminary estimates prepared by The Conference Board.

The index decreased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.2 percent in March (neither value was revised). Over the six months from November 1996 to May 1997, the index increased 1.2 percent. During the six-month period through May, all ten leading economic indicators advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).

The Conference Board's calculations show that six of the ten leading economic indicators rose in May. The most significant increases-in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest-are stock prices, average weekly initial claims for state unemployment insurance, vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index), and consumer expectations. The most significant negative contributors to the composite leading index in May are average factory workweek and interest rate spread.

The composite index of coincident indicators increased 0.2 percent in May to 115.7 (1992 equals 100). All three of the available components-employees on nonagricultural payrolls, industrial production, and personal income less transfer payments-increased. (Data on manufacturing and trade sales in May are not yet available.)

Based on revised data, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.2 percent in March. Over the six months from November 1996 to May 1997, the index increased 1.8 percent.

The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.2 percent in May to 105.2 (1992 equals 100). Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.3 percent in March.

Net contributions of leading components in May:

Average workweek, production workers, mfg		-0.03(p)
Average weekly initial claims,
  state unemployment insurance				+0.06
Mfrs.' new orders, consumer goods
  and materials industries				-0.01(p)
Vendor performance--
  slower deliveries diffusion index			+0.06
Mfts.' new orders, nondefense
  nondefense capital goods				+0.01(p)
Building permits					-0.01
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (c)			+0.18
Money supply M2						+0.01(p)
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury
   bonds less federal funds				-0.03
Index of consumer expectations (c)			+0.05

(p)-Preliminary.

(c)-Copyrighted. Series from private sources are provided through the courtesy of the compilers and are subject to their copyrights: Stock prices, Standard & Poor's Corporation; consumer expectations, University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.

July 1, 1997 The Conference Board

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