CBOT SEPTEMBER TREASURY BONDS: Minor trend up, major trend up.
Moving Averages--Positive--5-day 110.28, 20-day 109.23; positive-- 4-day 110.25, 9-day 110.15, 18-day 109.23; 50-day 108.21.

Oscillators--RSI 72%, stochastic 72/72, MACD 0.56/0.43.

Resistance--111.26-111.29 ** key daily resistance. Support--110.08- 110.15 ** key daily support.

Technical Indicators--The market is short-term overbought and warns of a correction. Open interest has not confirmed the recent move higher. Short-term market momentum remains up above the 110.11 area today.

Viewpoint--The market remains in the midst of a major uptrend on the daily chart, while the longer-term weekly chart is trading within the parameters of a symmetrical-triangle pattern. In the current environment, the market has approximately an 80% likelihood of breaking out of this triangle pattern to the upside. Short-term market momentum (and our short-term outlook) remains bullish above important minor support located at the 110.15-110.08 area today.

IOM JUNE S&P 500 INDEX: Minor trend up, major trend up.

Moving Averages--Positive--5-day 870.74, 20-day 850.87; positive-- 4-day 872.80, 9-day 859.01, 18-day 852.25; 50-day 813.58.

Oscillators--RSI 83%, stochastic 94/94, MACD 14.18/12.64.

Support--864.75-864.95 * key daily support.

Technical Indicators--The market is technically overbought and warns of a correction. Expanding open interest over the last 4 sessions has confirmed the recent move higher. Short-term market momentum remains above the 864.95 area today.

Viewpoint--Other than technically overbought conditions (which occur in any bull market), there is no clear technical sign that suggests the market is nearing a significant top at this price level. There is virtually no overhead resistance as the market continues to make new contract highs, although the 900.00 area may provide some psychological resistance. Short-term momentum (and our short-term outlook) remains bullish above minor support at the 864.95 area today.

June 13, 1997
John J. Kosar
Greenwich Natwest Futures, Inc.
311 S. Wacker,

Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index
Technical Corner Index

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