wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
TRIESTER ON THE MARKETS-OSPREY TRADING
111 Presidential Blvd.,
Ste 230, Bala Cynwyd PA
(June 13, 1997) ENERGIES: The oil market has tumbled again. The crude touched $18.53 closing at $19.67 down 135 on the week. Prices are crumbling in June. The buying from producers and domestic specs has left the bears in control. The commercials are short in the market and the intermediate trend now is down. This means that a slight decline was expected. Be out short term at $19.00 level trades. We will look for more next week. The oil complex is reacting to lack of stimuli and action elsewhere in the futures pits. The oil complex has shown worse relative strength as the summer comes. The API statistics have shown a rise of 1.2-million barrels in crude stock, which is negative. The Commitment of Traders is very bearish. We saw a plunge to low levels this week as expected and not too much after that. We want to move to the August crude contract. We hope you went short the unleaded gasoline which dumped as expected. These markets are now in trend modes. Use the August contracts from now on. The large down move has more to go.
Commercials and locals are coming to the long side and crushing the
wrong shorts. This shows a trend up condition in progress. The
heating oil is moving sideways as it has leveled off a bit this
week by 100 points this week on low volume. The oil market is
twitchy about any Middle East disruptions or conflict. Fundamentals
are negative here. We see that the supply is not the talk of the
floor any more. The situation has quieted in the Middle East for
now. Keep the trend going lower. The levels to watch are 20.22 up
and 18.40 down. We see these determining the trend move.
July Crude Oil--Position: Close 18.69 down 233 cents.
David E. Triester
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