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Crop Summary Yield
Per Acre Production Crop
Moisture Drought Severity
General Crop Comments Winter
Wheat Florida Citrus Texas
Citrus California Citrus
Sugar Crops, 1996 Revised
Winter Wheat Production Up 3 Percent
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.60 billion bushels, up 3 percent from last month and 8 percent higher than 1996. Based on June 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 39.3 bushels per acre. This is up 1.1 bushels from May 1 and 2.1 bushels per acre better than last year. Grain area totals 40.8 million acres, unchanged from last month.
Hard red winter wheat production is up 3 percent from last month's forecast at 921 million bushels. Improved Kansas and Oklahoma yields more than offset HRW declines elsewhere. Soft red winter, at 422 million, is also up 3 percent and now about equal to last year's total. White winter production is up from last month due to improved Washington yield expectations.
All oranges production for the 1996-97 season is forecast at a record large 12.9 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast in May. The U.S. forecast is up 10 percent from a year ago. This year's crop is 9 percent larger than the previous record of 11.8 million tons set in the 1979-80 season. Florida's record large production amounts to 224 million boxes (10.1 million tons), unchanged from May's forecast but 10 percent above last season.
Early and midseason varieties remained at a record large 134 million boxes (6.04 million tons), 11 percent above last year.
Florida's record large Valencia crop, 90.0 million boxes (4.05 million tons), is unchanged from May's forecast but 10 percent above last season's crop.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1996- 97 season is forecast at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from May. The forecast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The final 1995-96 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.52 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The average yield for 1996-97 early and mid- season varieties was final in April at 1.52 gallons per box, up from last season's 1.45. Valencia yield is projected at 1.68 gallons per box, unchanged from last month, but up from 1.67 last season.
Area Planted Area Harvested Crop 1996 1997 1996 19971,000 Acres
Winter Wheat 51,983 48,227 39,709 40,847 Sugarbeets-X 1,368.4 1,454.9 1,323.3 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed-X 888.9
Crop And Unit 1996 1997Winter Wheat (bushels) 37.2 39.3 Sugarbeets-X 20.2 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed-X 33.1
May 1, June 1,
Crop and Unit 1996 1997 1997
Winter Wheat (bu) 1,478,048 1,561,470 1,603,580
Oranges (ton) 11,723 12,861 12,861
Sugarbeets-X (ton) 26,680
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed-X
29,462
X--1996 revised.
Crop Production Narrative
Crop Moisture
Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.
Uses--Applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.
Limitations--May not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit.
It is not generally indicative of the long-term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.
Drought Severity Index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration.
Uses--Applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.
Limitations--Is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index).
Unseasonably cool weather east of the Rocky Mountains slowed crop emergence and development the entire month of May. Localities as far south as Kentucky recorded freezing temperatures well beyond their normal "last freeze date." Despite the cool weather, corn planting progressed well ahead of normal throughout the Corn Belt. As corn planting finished, farmers immediately switched to planting soybeans, which also progressed well ahead of the normal pace. However, below-normal temperatures hindered crop emergence and development, requiring limited replanting. Overall, corn condition as of June 1, 1997, was mostly good. Continuous cool, wet weather hindered planting operations along the Gulf Coast and in the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Late-month rains eased a 3-week dry spell along the southern and middle Atlantic Coast. Southeastern cotton and peanut growers made good planting progress during the middle of the month. End-of-month rains improved crop conditions, but hindered planting progress.
Dry soils in the central and northern High Plains stressed the winter wheat crop for most of the month, causing conditions to decline. Favorable rains fell in the area the last half of May, alleviating drought-like conditions. Planting of spring wheat, barley, and oats was delayed until mid-month by cool weather and saturated soils in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Drier soils allowed small grain farmers to plant at a rapid pace during the latter part of May.
Unlike the east, states west of the Rocky Mountains recorded above- normal temperatures during May. In the northwest, winter wheat condition improved with late-month rains. Spring wheat, barley, and oat growers made good planting progress during the month. Six consecutive weeks of hot weather in the southwest provided good crop planting and development conditions, but exacerbated long-term drought.
Area for grain harvest this year is forecast at 40.8 million acres, unchanged from May 1 but up 3 percent from 1996. Yields in the Delta and southeastern soft red winter states are generally equal to or higher than last month. Cool weather has slowed Alabama's harvest; Arkansas' also trails average. The Georgia harvest is about half complete. Little or no disease problems have been reported in Kentucky's late developing crop. Heavy rains apparently hurt Indiana's wheat. The coolest May on record has slowed Michigan wheat development. Objective Yield Survey head count forecasts compare to 1995 in Illinois and Ohio, but are the highest since 1988 in Missouri.
Average head count populations are forecast from Washington's Objective Yield survey. Idaho's winter crop is maturing ahead of average. Oregon growers are less optimistic after May's hot weather.
Hard red winter objective yield head counts have improved in Kansas and are well above average levels. The Oklahoma and Texas count forecasts are at record high numbers. Colorado's compares to 1995. Nebraska's populations are near average while Montana's are similar to last year. South Dakota's crop is growing very slowly with only 26 percent in boot as of June 1. The California wheat harvest is about two weeks ahead of normal.
Durum production in Arizona and California is forecast at 21.8 million bushels, up 1 percent from May 1 because of improved Arizona yields. As of June 1, 30 percent of the Arizona acreage was harvested. This trails both last year and the 5-year average. California's Imperial Valley harvest was active through May and was about 75 percent complete by June 1; quality and protein content were a little lower than normal. Remaining acreages in both states are rated in good to excellent condition.
Most of Florida's citrus groves were in good condition at the end of May. The east and west coast areas received above average rainfall during the month, while most of the other areas were a little below normal. There is an abundance of new growth on trees of all ages in well maintained groves. New-crop fruit made good progress as most trees have stopped dropping the small green fruit that the trees cannot carry for next season. The Valencia oranges remaining for harvest are in good condition with excellent pounds solids and juice content. Grapefruit movement during May was more active than in recent years, and limited grapefruit harvest continues. Caretakers were very active in May cutting cover crops, completing post bloom spraying, and planting resets where older trees were removed.
Harvest of the 1996-97 citrus crop was virtually complete by late May. Rains in the Rio Grande Valley during May were beneficial and lessened the need for irrigation. A good fruit set has occurred for next season's orange and grapefruit crops.
Grapefruit harvest in the desert area was winding down by late May. Grapefruit picking in other areas gained momentum, with good to excellent quality reported. Lemon movement to date is ahead of previous years, but picking slowed in the South Coast area. Navel orange picking is virtually complete. A high percentage of the Valencia orange crop is going to export. Both export and domestic Valencias have good to excellent quality.
Sugarbeet production in 1996 totaled 26.7 million tons, down 5 percent from 1995. Area harvested totaled 1.32 million acres, down 7 percent from last year. Yield-per-acre averaged 20.2 tons, compared with the previous year's average of 19.8 tons. The sugarbeet estimates for New Mexico and Washington were reported separately starting in 1996.
Sugarcane production for sugar in 1996 totaled 29.5 million tons, 4 percent below last year's output. The decrease in production is the result of a decline in harvested acreage. Area harvested totaled 888,900 acres, 5 percent below 1995. The average yield of 33.1 tons per acre was virtually unchanged from last year.
June 12, 1997
Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA, Washington, D.C.
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