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COMMODITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

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(May 9, 1997) WHEAT: Long-term forecasts for dry weather in Kansas rallied the wheat market. Exports were poor, but commercial buying was noted. Nervous trade has dominated the wheat pit. Between uncertainty regarding crop status and the direction of the beans, most traders are uncommitted. The Wheat Quality Council tour reported a yield potential of 32.6 bushels per acre. above last year's yields, but below 1995's. However. when they tour affected areas, they are looking at what the plant looks like, not what it will yield. It is somewhat subjective. Cash traders are reporting interest in wheat at these prices. For now, I would continue to buy dips on July wheat to the low 400-405 area with stops under 390 or of 20 cents. Aggressive bears might sell July wheat in the 414-420 area with stops of 10 or so cents or over 425. Look for a decline to the low 400's, upper 390's but be alert for reversals. Wheat may be ruled by the technicians for a while.

M. Steven Morgan

Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index
Grain and Oilseeds Index

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