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REDBOOK RESEARCH REPORT

Retail Sales Index For The Week Ended Saturday, May 3, 1997
Latest Week Latest Week Latest Month Latest Month
vs. vs. vs. vs.
Same Week Previous Same Month Previous
Last Year Week Last Year Month
Total Sales 6.0% 0.4% 6.1% 0.2%
Same-Store Sales 3.8% 0.3% 3.8% 1.1%
Year-over-year total-store sales growth firmed slightly to 6.0% in the fourth and final week of April, ended May 3, 1997, after 5.6% the previous week. Estimated sales for the month continued at 0.2% ahead of March, right in line with Redbook's latest estimate. The week's modest improvement was reflected mainly in department store business, due to improved demand for apparel and accessories. Retailers confirmed that warmer weather throughout the country was supporting sales of seasonal merchandise. The week's results also were helped by a poor performance in the year-ago period, which boosted percentage gains. They were not sufficient, however, to alter the character of the month, which remained subdued. Our retail sample closed April substantially short of its initial goal, which was for estimated sales to exceed March by 1.3% (instead of the 0.2% actually achieved), and for an average annual gain of 7.2% (instead of an actual 6.1%).

March's results also had fallen short of target, though by less. The combined average annual growth rate for the two months was 6.4%. Retailers set more modest targets for April than for March, despite an extra shopping day and, if the trend continues, may adjust their expectations downward again in May to be more in line with current results.

On a same-store basis, year-over-year growth for the latest week was 3.8% and the closing sales estimate for the month was 1.1% ahead of March.

Sales Growth Forecasts

Forecasts quantify expected average sales growth rates for the month. Two sets of expectations are featured, one based on sales plans made by retailers at the beginning of the month, and an independent Redbook forecast, updated weekly except for the final week of the month.

Retailers Redbook

Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth
Total Sales +7.2% +1.3% +6.1% +0.2%
Same-Store Sales +4.5% +1.7% +3.8% +1.1%
May 7, 1997 Redbook Research A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.

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