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ALLENDALE, INC.
4506 Prime Parkway, McHenry, Illinois
800-262-7538(March 24, 2000) SOYBEANS: The strongest of the big three. Funds are doing their absolute best to defend the beans and rightfully so before 2000 plantings take place. Export sales have been very good in comparison to corn and wheat. Domestic demand had a small pullback since ADM announced they will close some of their crush facilities earlier than normal. Funds were huge sellers in the soymeal which has been enjoying a nice uptrend. We were able to buy a unit of July meal today and missed buying the July beans by a couple of cents. The levels which we choose to get long is major trendline support. Once farmers are in the fields and if they follow through with planting the acres they said they would via the farmer crop survey and mother nature cooperates by producing average weather we will have no choice but turn sellers for what could be a 1 dollar lower move into the fall. The May/November spread at 24 cents may have the where with all to push out to full carry of 31 cents when Brazil makes better progress on their harvest and we on plantings. We entered this trade on the "Specwatch" page. When looking at the daily charts key trendline support is at 5262 with consolidative support at about 1 cent lower. Overhead resistance is the recent high of 5484 which nearly mirrors the same level found on 1/28/00, 1 cent lower. Weekly charts suggest 4950 is consolidative support with resistance of 5564. The farmer survey we aired today indicated many acres of corn will switch out of corn to beans especially in the western Corn Belt. The biggest swings can be found in Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Iowa. Hey if we are going to have a drought in the western Corn Belt, beans should be they way to go as their historic trend yield typically only suffers 1% to 3% versus a 17% to 25% trend yield reduction in corn when you have back-to-back La Nina years. The survey we released indicates bean seeding for the year 2000 should be 76.52 and 77.86 million acres of corn. Tonight's 6- to 10-day is wet.
Joe Victor
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