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505-769-3300(March 30, 2000) CORN: Corn prices held very important support levels at $2.50 basis the December corn contract. The most recent 15-cent break should be enough to clean out the market just before the USDA Crop Production report is released this Friday morning. Acres are estimated to come in around unchanged from last year at 77.35 million acres. Expect to see some short covering ahead of the report with very little activity. Odds are that once the report is behind us, prices will begin to focus on reality once again. This would be "weather" and how many acres are actually going to get planted. It's one thing to look at estimates, it totally another to see the actual acres go into the ground. At this time, many analysts are telling us that it will take December corn trading at $2.75 or higher in order to pull soybean acres away. We believe that the $2.60 level may have been enough to pull acres. Either way, there are still going to be lots of acres in corn (weather permitting). And aside from an <196>all-out" drought, there will be a corn crop this year. Any significant problem from planting into mid summer may take prices to the $2.80 area, but producers can't really bet that this will be the case. Best planning is to lock in some cash and cover the topside with options or other strategies. You'll be right much more often to plan ahead than to "bet on the come" year in and year out!
SHORT-TERM TRENDS--Down.
LONG-TERM TRENDS--Weekly charts are still up.
Bryon Fillpot
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