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360-289-9441(March 26, 2000) SUGAR: May sugar rose from the depths of 5.06 Tuesday to a high of 5.49 on Thursday and settled Friday at 5.38. It needs a close above 5.49 to be bullish. Stochastics are bullish in all time frames; RSI is in the 50's. Moving averages are bullish (9- and 18-day average lines crossed two Mondays ago). Everyone seems to want this market to rally, but if you step back a pace or two you will see that it has benefitted the bears since November 16th when prices dropped from over 7 cents. Now, having made the low at 4.84 end of February, all and sundry are cheering each and every attempt at a rally. But supplies are plentiful and demand is ordinary; not a good set of fundamentals. Perhaps China or Russia will pick up their purchasing pace. Down. One more thing: that is a classic 3-day pattern entry working with a short sale indicated for Friday's close of Monday's open--based on "pattern entry" tactics and a bearish trend call still in effect...Is the bear pattern still in effect. I'd have to say this is not your typical pattern entry as the trading channel has gone into neutral. Neutral.
Funds and small speculators are net short a mere 7500 contracts; this is considered supportive and less than expected. Brazilian cane sugar may come in 10-20% smaller than expected. This is bullish. Some business is reported from Russia. Mexico wants access to our sugar market and may ask for a NAFTA panel to arbitrate the dispute (bearish). Guatemala may import sugar duty free (bullish).
Martin B. Miller
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