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360-289-9441(March 12, 2000) WHEAT: Wheat fundamentals unchanged after the USDA report; slightly higher trading bias on Friday as supply/demand picture is little changed. Hard red spring wheat carryover stocks were increased by 5 million bushels, balanced by a drop in soft red winter wheat.
Winter is not over in the Plains, but traders speculated on whether they would effect wheat plantings. USDA announced $50 million in tender credits to South Korea.
Algeria could be the buyer of 100K tons of soft on Monday.
U.S. hard red spring wheat carryover or ending stocks rose by 5 million bushels in the latest USDA report...slightly bearish but when farmer selling dried up at the MGE the market did not decline...$3.22-1/4 is May's settlement price.
May wheat has come out of its downtrend in early January, but has not been able to sustain either a rally or return to the downtrend. Instead, like corn, price bars have cycled higher and lower; the latest trend is bearish since late February. Near-term stochastics are bullish, but the 9- and 18-day moving averages are still in a bearish mode. The May has come down 8 cents from its high of 2.68 this week--support seems to be holding around 2.58 though a bit of downward momentum is still working. Since the trading channel is not well formed, pattern entry has a low probability of success.
Martin B. Miller
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