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KLEIST CONSULTING
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312-648-2233(March 16, 2000) WHEAT: WEATHER BULLS NEED NOT APPLY--While the corn and beans are basking in the glow of a potential drought and rallying to ever higher peaks, the wheat market is languishing with minimal gains. Now granted, all markets are individual to a degree and the wheat has had its share of poor news from weak exports, high carryovers and heated world competition for business. Yet, from a pure weather perspective, how can corn and beans suffer a drought and the wheat market not do so? And wheat was the original drought market starting with the dryness in the southern/southwestern Plains. And unlike corn and beans, there actually is some wheat in the ground. Remember, winter wheat? And there are actually Crop Condition reports in Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma to view. And the crops are not in good shape. Some improvements yes, but not much. Texas improved, but called "dire" yet. Wheat is the whipping boy then. Or a reality check on the other pits. It is too early for a positive, for sure, has to happen, drought. Play these grain markets from the long side on breaks, but beware the hype on rallies for now. Roll with them, trade them, but do not marry them yet.
John W. Kleist
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