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800-634-3194(March 15, 2000) SOYBEANS: A forecast for rain in the Midwest pressed the beans a bit, but profit-taking was likely a feature as well. Funds were light sellers, with commercial selling a strong presence. Long-term forecast may provide direction for the beans for the near term. Little or no rain: bullish. Plenty of rain: bearish. It won't show up on a chart. There is a sizable contingent of traders who expect the next long term forecast to show continued dry weather. We'll see. Rain in Brazil is slowing the harvest, and therefore keeping Brazilian beans unavailable for now and leaving the U.S. as the prime supplier of beans. However, the pace of farmer selling picked up on this rally, weakening cash basis levels, and encouraging commercials to become a bit more aggressive in their selling. In addition, the Brazilian harvest is delayed, not prevented, so we are likely to see competition from them in the near future.
M. Steven Morgan
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