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THE PACIFIC COMMODITY LETTER
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360-289-9441(March 12, 2000) CORN: Corn went sideways this past week. Good weather did nothing good for prices. Cash prices were down and dirty; commercials came in to sell and prices could go nowhere fast. Uncertain whether and weakness all-around kept corn from moving. However, good export numbers helped prop up prices on Thursday and on Friday the USDA report pressured prices with its neutral supply/demand numbers, weakness in beans and better prospects for rain over the weekend. May closed the week 1-1/4 cents higher at $2.26-3/4.
May corn is waving at us, e.g., price bars coming in waves from high to low and high again, presently in a two-week cycle higher, though the intermediate trading channel is still bearish. Stochastics are bullish; directional indicators are positive and near term momentum is up. 9- and 18-day moving averages are still in bearish mode but closing in to "cross"; when that happens it will signal "buy" (most strategies use this as a filter or confirmation rather than a strategy in and by itself.
The two-day correction to the downtrend Wednesday and Thursday was followed by a small decline Friday to make it a "return" day; if this pattern entry "works" it will mean lower prices ahead with an entry signaled for Friday's close or Monday's open. The trend channel is not well formed so that confidence in a pattern entry here is not high. Bearish.
Martin B. Miller
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