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800-262-7538(March 10, 2000) CORN: Add up the old-crop corn stocks and add them to the old-crop wheat stocks. That's right 2.736 billion bushels March of 2000 versus a year ago at this time was 2.733 billion bushels. Worse yet is the fact USDA did not make the needed adjustments to end stocks of corn and wheat and thus ultimately stocks could become much heavier than last year, which in turn should turn old-crop wheat and corn basis sour first and then gradually poison the new-crop basis. Talk in the country is maybe not as big of a switch from beans to corn as some thoughts are. Anhydrous Ammonia prices have jumped more than $80 per ton and may pressure a few farmers to push the pencil over to bean plantings rather than the corn. Technically the July corn chart is headed into a major wedge formation. If this weeks high is taken out it could project old-crop futures into the 2.56 area. However if 2.28 is taken out then it could confirm the double top of 2.42 and project a move to the 2.14 area which would coincide with our outlook price projections. Weather will likely be the fuse to light the keg. Given average weather we view the fundamentals mentioned here tonight as well as the technicals as longer-term bearish. We do anticipate weaker prices ahead and a widening basis which very well could put cash prices into the same boat as we many were in last year but this time this boat has some pretty bad corrosion. Technical support is at 2320 and 2282. Overhead resistance is 2376 and the 2420 double top. Make sure you get those 2400/2900 December corn calls on for re-ownership of old crop we sold back on December 2, 1999 and also on the 35% of corn hedged at the 2520 level. There is a supply demand hiccup this spring into summer. We remain short one unit of July corn and we are in the process of trying to short a unit of May futures.
Joe Victor
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