COTTON AND WOOL YEARBOOK
Summary
Record World Cotton Use And Declining Stocks Highlight 2000/01
(November 21, 2000) U.S. cotton production in 2000 is forecast at 17.51 million bales, 3 percent above last seasons 16.97 million. This seasons output is based on larger area and a higher national yield. U.S. cotton planted area jumped nearly 700,000 acres from 1999 to 15.5 million this season, the second largest cotton area in nearly four decades. However, drought conditions this past summer took its toll on the cotton crop in many areas across the United States. As a result, abandonment reached 13 percent this season, about double the normal level, and harvested cotton area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, only 100,000 acres above 1999. The national yield is projected to rise 15 pounds this season to average 622 pounds per harvested acre, similar to 1998.
U.S. cotton exports in 2000/01 (August/July marketing year) are projected to continue the rebound that began last season. Shipments are expected to reach 7.6 million bales this season, as the global economy continues to improve and world consumption is forecast to reach a record. Although U.S. export commitments as of early November equaled those of a year ago, shipments are forecast to rise 13 percent from 1999/2000. With world trade expected to decline slightly this season, the United States is forecast to capture a larger share of the global market. During 2000/01, the U.S. share of world trade is projected at about 29 percent, up from 25 percent a year earlier.
In contrast, U.S. cotton mill use is forecast to decline slightly (2 percent) again this season to 10 million bales. The continued growth of U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports, along with a slowdown in the robust U.S. economic growth of the last several years, are expected to keep mill use from reaching last seasons level. In 2000, U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade is forecast to reach a record. While exports are expected to rise for the 16th consecutive year, imports will expand for the 12th year in a row, further widening the trade deficit. In addition, total domestic consumption (mill use plus net textile trade) will surpass last year's record of 9.6 billion pounds, and may also exceed 1999's per capita consumption of 35.1 pounds.
Similar to the cotton stocks of the previous two seasons, U.S. 2000/01 beginning stocks were estimated at 3.9 million bales. While a larger crop is forecast this season, imports of foreign cotton are expected to be small once again in 2000/01. As a result, total U.S. cotton supply is projected at 21.5 million bales, 500,000 above last season. Meanwhile, total demand for U.S. cotton is also forecast to rise to 17.6 million bales, 600,000 above 1999/2000. Based on these supply and demand estimates, U.S. ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected to remain near the beginning level. With stocks about unchanged and demand forecast higher this season, the stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline slightly to 22 percent, the lowest in 3 years.
World cotton production in 2000/01 is forecast at 86.7 million bales, 400,000 bales below a year earlier, as the larger U.S. crop is more than offset by a decline in foreign production. Projected at 69.2 million bales, foreign production is forecast to decline for the third consecutive season. Production decreases in Central Asia, the African Franc Zone, and Pakistan more than offset increases in China and the Southern Hemisphere.
In contrast, world cotton consumption in 2000/01 is projected at a record 92.5 million bales, more than 1 million above last season. Although lower mill use is expected in the United States, consumption in China, India, and Pakistan--the largest foreign consumers--is forecast to rise a combined total of nearly 1 million bales and account for 75 percent of the projected increase in global consumption in 2000/01. A number of other countries, including Turkey, Mexico, and Indonesia, are also forecast to use more cotton this season as world economic growth continues.
World cotton exports, on the other hand, are projected to decline 2 percent in 2000/01 to 26.7 million bales. Foreign shipments are expected to total only 19.1 million bales, the lowest since 1994/95. China's decrease of 1 million bales in expected shipments from a year ago accounts for the majority of the 1.4-million-bale foreign decline this season.
With the decline in world production and the increase in consumption, stocks are projected to fall this season to 35.1 million, the lowest in 6 years. With U.S. stocks about unchanged, foreign stocks in 2000/01 are forecast to drop to 31.2 million bales, 5.5 million below last season and 10 million below stocks of only 2 years ago. Similar to exports, China accounts for the majority of the stock changes over the last two seasons. China's stocks are projected to fall 4.5 million bales during the 2000/01 season, while smaller declines are seen for others, including Uzbekistan and Pakistan. By season's end, however, China is forecast to hold only 30 percent of the global cotton stocks, well below the 47 percent held in 1998/99.
November 21, 2000 Economic Research Service USDA, Washington, D.C. 202-219-0515
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