THE TODD MARKET FORECAST
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(November 1, 1999) METALS: The charts are courtesy of Investors Business Daily. We, like everyone else were impressed by the rally in gold and indeed, when viewed on the chart for the past year shown below, it just seems to blow the lid of all precedence.
However, when viewed on a broader panorama as shown in the next column, it looks a bit less impressive. Since 1980 there have been a number of equally impressive rallies that have gone nowhere.
Silver looks even less convincing than gold when examined on a longer-term time frame.
Gold
Silver
We have said it before. Gold may have made an intermediate-term bottom and could indeed rally for a while, but, we really don't think that it has a great future as compared to the stock market. There are simply too many alternatives for those looking for a safe haven in time of trouble.
Stephen Todd