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(March 26, 2002) CORN: There will be a USDA Stocks and Planting Intentions report out on Thursday. Early estimates are to see corn acres increase over 3 million acres. It will be interesting to see what the USDA has to say. The average guess at this time is 78.134 million acres. Prices have factored in an enormous amount of negative news over the last few weeks. Trends have remained down since last September with no signs of turning back higher. The fact remains that an unchanged Farm Bill will only encourage more production and the anticipation of lower prices. Estimates also range above the 10-billion bushel level again this year and the crop has yet to be planted. Weather concerns in the Midwest may be the only hope grain has for a rally this year. These markets are becoming less and less sensitive to changes in weather as we've seen in the wheat market. There has developed a "prove it to me" attitude before buyers are willing to commit anymore. Either way, a close above $2.13 basis the May contract would turn prices higher for the first time in months. This would indicate to us that the market is going higher no matter how the fundamental situation reads. Until prices begin to make higher highs and higher lows, trends are down.

SHORT-TERM TREND--Down.

LONG-TERM TREND--Bottoming.

 

Bryon Fillpot

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