ALLENDALE INC.
4506 Prime Parkway, McHenry, Illinois
800-262-7538
(March 22, 2002) SOYBEANS: Only five trade days remain to April 1 and July soybeans are 32 cents away from reaching $5. When analyzing the contract between the January 1 to April 1 time span, July beans have managed to trade at or above $5. The CFTC/Price report indicates funds may be poised to throw the profit taking switch very soon and reverse bean/corn spreads. We re-owned the May soybeans based on our 28-, 5-, and 3-year study. After taking profits the past two trades, we will do our best to use a trailing stop to protect any profits gained headed into the last few trade days of March 2002. No one should be owning any old crop as the market has not offered much if any lengthy periods of time of carry. We understand South America is in the midst of harvesting a potential 73 million tonne (2.68 billion bushel) crop. We understand world ending stocks are very near year-ago levels, even with these big crops as world consumption remains strong. However we have our doubts the floor trade has the same understanding. Respect the fact it is their perception which counts at the end of the day's trade. We will continue to recommend to hedge new crop. After the close of Friday's trade several weather experts have agreed the forming El Nino does not appear to nearly as strong as initially thought. This could translate into less rains for the U.S. southeast and for southern Brazil.
Commitments Of Traders Futures And Options
Net Fund Positions Over Bean Prices
Last updated 3/22/02.
Allendale, Inc. © 2002.
Joe Victor www.allendale-inc.com