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(March 21, 2002) WHEAT: Wheat prices have seen very little activity this week although prices have come under pressure because of widespread rains in parts of the winter wheat growing areas. It is still too early to determine whether or not these rains were enough to change overall conditions. Rain in many wheat growing areas may have had very little affect because of several reasons. The majority of the damage in many wheat growing areas had been too severe to gain any benefit from the recent rains because of drought and sub freezing temperatures from two weeks ago. There is no doubt that conditions can still improve significantly in many areas which have basically be written off. This market still has more potential to move higher than any other grain. There is not expected to be many harvested acres this year while many producers have opted to either graze out pasture or turn it into hay. With prices trading at current levels, there is little incentive to harvest and government price supports will do little to create any new incentives. Short-term trends remain higher at this time. May Chicago wheat is boxed in between support and resistance. Prices need to close above $2.87 in order to see another leg up and a close below $2.76 would turn short-term trends back down. Long-term trend indicators are also very close to signaling a possible move back higher. There were some long-term cycles which look to have bottomed about 3 weeks ago.

SHORT-TERM TREND--Trend is higher.

LONG-TERM TREND--Possibly higher into March/April.

 

Bryon Fillpot

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