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ALLENDALE, INC.
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(March 15, 2002) SOYBEANS: As a result of our five-year average study, Allendale Advanced Charts Head and Shoulder research and our 1973-2001 long-term study which answers the question "has July soybean futures ever not traded at or above 5000 between January 1 and April 1" we remain long old-crop futures by re-entering after taking sizable profits out late last week. Considering the fact China canceled previously purchased soybeans as reported Thursday morning in the weekly export sales and shipments data and there was unknown destinations (likely China again) canceled out of 154,000 tonnes the trade had an opportunity to pull the rug out of an impressive rally, but they did not. China did have 57,800 tonnes of soybeans shipped to them as reported in the same morning report. Rumors this morning China has threatened the USA with an import tariff to counter the steel import the U.S. has set. China may want to mind their manners as if they do place the import tariff against the USA then they can either shut down a number of their crush plants or be prepared to pay through the nose for non-GMO soybeans from Brazil. Brazil farmers are finally waking up to the idea their non-GMO beans may carry a premium to the GMO variety. We remain bullish to soybeans due primarily to the historical studies which for the first time this month, some of the major newswire services carried mention of these "seasonal studies" late in the week. Unhedged soybeans need to be moved as there is very little if any carry or enough economic reasons to store. Use this rally to move any unsold cash soybeans. Our studies suggest we may only have another 7 to 15 cents left in this rally based on those historical studies. The long-term study from 1973 to present would indicate there could be as much as 22-24 cents remaining.


 
Joe Victor
www.allendale-inc.com

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