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(March 14, 2002) SOYBEANS: The hoof and mouth rumor weighed on beans as well as corn due to lower meal usage if found to be fact. The May contract is still near the 200-day average. Whether or not it can muster the buying needed to continue the upside march remains to be seen. The chart is a bit negative to me, and implies a break to possibly 445 or so. We'll see. If that is so, it may be a solid buying opportunity. However, arguably the market is still on course for 480 or so, so if you are an aggressive bear (or bull) use stops. A large South American crop is being harvested, a fact not lost on bean traders. China is said to be turning to South America for beans, while Brazil is just beginning to crank up the export machine. And then there's the problem that U.S. beans are already at a premium to Brazilian beans.

M. Steven Morgan

www.commodityreview.com

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