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(March 14, 2002) CORN: News that the U.S. sold 109,728 tonnes of corn to Japan was supportive, but that is faint praise. Then the rumor mill jumped into action. Rumors were making the rounds that some cattle in Kansas had been found to have hoof and mouth disease. The reason this is negative to corn is that livestock with or exposed to the disease have to be liquidated, thus cutting back feed usage. Some worries still exist that corn will come under pressure as a result of Russia's poultry ban, which could weigh on corn and bean meal if it continues. Then there's the issue of South American grain coming to the market, not to mention competition from China. The chart has become a bit negative. It remains to be seen as to how much downside we might expect.

Funds remain overwhelmingly short, suggesting that should they begin to cover those shorts, corn could see a solid rally on that basis alone. For a good example of their power, take a look at coffee's rally over the past couple of days which has been fueled primarily by fund short-covering.

M. Steven Morgan
www.commodityreview.com

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