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(March 14, 2002) CORN: Corn prices were able to move high enough this week to turn short term trends higher. Wednesday prices once again sold off to test support, but only a close below the $2.06 level basis the May contract would short-term trends turn lower again. Fundamentally, there has been little going on in the corn to stimulate any interest in either direction. News that there may be an increase in alcohol subsidies this week was able to support prices to a small extent, but not enough to offset the negative news that ethanol use in California would be prolonged. Many analysts and traders alike are still waiting to see the New Farm Bill before making any long term commitments. Some of our long term indicators are beginning to turn positive again, but we would really like to see prices close above the $2.11 level basis the nearby May contract on a weekly basis. The probabilities would begin to increase along with the an increased seasonal tendency for higher prices into the April/May time frame. Any improvement in prices can be linked to small steps in the right direction. At this time it would be important to see long term charts turn positive followed by another move back above the $2.23 level basis May corn. Eventually, a close above the $2.36 level could set-up a larger move back towards the $2.50 and higher. On the downside, there really isn't much potential unless ideal weather conditions prevail through planting and all the way into harvest. Generally, there is a short pop up during the late Spring time frame to allow hedgers an opportunity to do some pricing. Aside from last year, this seems to have more potential? More potential may translate into only a 20-30 cent rally from here.

SHORT-TERM TREND--Trends are higher.

LONG-TERM TREND--Trends up into April/May.

Bryon Fillpot

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