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414-351-1992(March 26, 2002) FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS: U.S. TREASURY BONDS--The market did exactly as directed during March. Nearby bonds came within 5 ticks of the projected resistance at 105-09 and then it turned on a dime. Seasonal and cyclical persuasions took over from there and now we find June bonds about seven full points below the February peak. Bonds are due for a bounce, but don't expect much. Except for a rally in the first week, seasonal pressures turn dramatically bearish for most of April. If the next leg down is similar in size to the one that started the bear trend late last year, it will eventually place nearby bonds around 91-00. Once your in that neighborhood, bonds will be just a stone's throw away from the low set in January of 2000 at 89-00. Measured from the recent top, April is a swing month.
Dave Norton
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