This article is brought to you by:
CONSENSUS

IRA EPSTEIN & COMPANY
223 West Jackson, 7th Floor, Chicago, Illinois
312-207-1800

(March 25, 2002) CURRENCIES: The U.S. Dollar Index futures began this week strong, while Japanese Yen futures continues to soften and Euro currency futures appear to me to have found support.

As the Japanese fiscal year winds down, little in the way of new positive economic news adds support to the beleaguered currency. The June Japanese Yen futures continues to tumble. Next support in the June Japanese Yen futures contract comes in at the contract low of 74.49. It seems to me that the market appears ready to challenge the contract low by the end of this shortened trading week. High-risk traders should in my opinion consider selling the June Japanese Yen near the 45-day moving 75.90 level. Place your stop loss just above the 18-day moving average.

Traders this week will be watching a few economic reports slated for release. On March 26th, February Durable Goods orders are scheduled for release. The average analysts estimate of comes in at an increase of 1.3%. January Durable Goods orders were up 2.0%. I believe that any figure above 1.3% will continue to boost the June U.S. Dollar Index.

Traders will also watch the release of March Consumer Confidence. The median forecast has been reported at 97.0%. Well above the February figure of 94.1%. Any figure below 97.0 I believe might pressure the June U.S. Dollar Index.

On March 27th traders will be watching the release of the final 4th Quarter GDP. No changes have been forecast. The average estimate agrees with last month's figure of up 1.4%.

Last week the June U.S. Dollar Index futures took out the resistance at $118.40 and traded above the 18-day moving average. Consequently I am recommending a buy of the June U.S. Dollar Index at $118.45. I recommend using a $11750 sell stop if filled.

Last week the June Euro currency futures took out its support at the $86.560 level. As a result the market now appears to me to be in a downtrend. However, as of today, traders seem reluctant to sell below the 18-day average. Until this market establishes a trading range, I recommend to stay on the sidelines.

RECOMMENDATIONS--June U.S. Dollar Index: Buy long at $118.45.

Les Jones

Back To Financial Markets Index

Hosted by:
CONSENSUS, INC. AND INVESTORS CO-OP
P.O. Box 520526
Independence, MO 64052-0526
816-373-3700
Fax: 816-373-3701
editor@consensus-inc.com