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(March 15, 2002) STOCK INDICES: Samuel Clements, AKA Mark Twain once remarked that reports of his death were premature, in response to such reports. The opposite could be said about the reports of the return to prosperity and stock market health. They also could be premature. While Wall Street was celebrating the improvement in the economic data, one must take into consideration that such reports are relative. The improvement in economic data is against a backdrop of recessionary numbers and rather than an improvement, one could assess them as "less negative". Be that as it may investors perceive a basing of negativity in the U.S. economy and that portends the possibility of the Federal Reserve "jumping the gun" and raising rates to forestall the "imaginary" inflation that Mr. Greenspan fears above all else. While the bulls took heart in the wave of so called improved economic data one must recognize that much of the data is questionable. Consider the case of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for instance, was the poll conducted at shopping Malls, where people are spending money earned from their jobs? It was certainly not conducted at the various unemployment offices around the country where people are waiting in line for jobs and unemployment checks. I continue to believe that until the employment situation changes dramatically, there can be no economic turnaround and consequently no return to happy days on Wall Street. Stay out of stocks. There is, in my opinion, the proverbial Black Hole under this market.

John L. Caiazzo

www.acuvest.com

E-mail: futures@acuvest.com

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