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941-594-3939(March 1, 2002) STOCK INDICES: Last month, we forecasted "a choppy but higher market." This was based on our forecasting models being mixed but with a slight tilt to the bullish side. In fact, the stock market was ver mixed for the month, with the DJIA the most positive, S&Ps were lower until the last few days of the month, and despite the big month end rally, the NASDAQ Composite still managed a negative result for the month.
We will be utilizing three forecast models for current forecast period, March 4-April 5. The Planetary Index, Fibonacci Cycles, and Gann DJIA January Barometer Annual Forecast. The Planetary Index is decidedly bearish all month with a steep downward acceleration beginning on March 22 and continuing into April 1. The Fibonacci Cycle Composite indicates a sideways to lower period until circa March 22 when it also accelerates to the downside. The Gann DJIA Annual Forecast, since our initiation of this model, will have its first major test this month, as the first major turning point, a probable high is indicated for the period near March 8. This is further corroborated by a cluster of major cycles culminating for the U.S. on March 10-11.
Synthesizing all of these factors indicates that the most likely scenario is for a peak March 8-10, followed by a sideways to lower market that accelerates to the downside beginning circa March 22 and continues sharply lower into April 1. The first week of April should exhibit a slightly more positive sideways action.
KEY DATES--3/4, 3/8-12, 3/18, 3/20, 3/25, 3/27, 4/1-2, 4/5 AC.
2/01 SPX close 1122.20. 3/01 SPX close 1131.78.
Norman Winski
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