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414-351-1992(February, 2002) FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS: TREASURY BONDS--Our projection for January was for a few weeks of rally that had the potential of reaching the half-way point of 104-24. Since the seasonal pattern was bearish, a sub-par recovery was thought to be likely. March bonds actually peaked at 104-11 on January 16 and the decline continues to today. Seasonally, bonds are about to fall off a cliff! The first half of February usually brings a sharp decline and that more or less fits the tone and trend of the current situation. On top of that, if the last day of January finds March bonds trading above 101-17 it will create a bearish three down "but" monthly cycle for February. A small rally in the final week of January will also generate one, and possibly two bearish weekly cycles. Keep your attention on finding a place to sell.
Dave Norton
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