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(March 28, 2002) COCOA: MAY COCOA--Although the bulls lost a bit more ground this past week, the charts still suggest nothing more than a nominal correction in progress. However, with trade houses lowering the world deficit projection by 40,000 metric tons and Ivory Coast arrivals suggesting a larger main crop, an argument can be made for a more extensive break ahead. In this event, the Fibonacci band point to a 50% retracement of the December/March advance, which would see prices back near $1400/mt. Our prognosis for this market is now a bit more guarded.

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