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(March 26, 2002) COTTON: Cotton prices have been reaching levels which indicated a possible short-term top in place and this week, short-term trends turned down. The strongest support levels remain down around the 37 cent level basis the May contract. This would also equate to about a two-thirds retracement level. Prices have been trading inside a range for months. Once again, prices have almost reached the topside of this range and failed. We have continued to hold out some hope that prices could eventually break above this range and move another 5 cents up towards long-term targets on the weekly charts. This would place the December contract up towards the 48-50 cent area. This week's failure was not a positive indication that prices can move much higher than levels already seen. There will be a USDA Planting Intentions report out on Thursday. At this time, analyst are predicting another bumper crop with production estimates ranging over 18 million bales. A close back to new highs would turn trends back higher, but for now, trends are down.

SHORT-TERM TREND--Lower.

LONG-TERM TREND--Short-term top.

 

Bryon Fillpot

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