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(March 22, 2002) LUMBER: My recommendation on shorting lumber have finally panned out. May and July contracts closed limit down $10.00 per thousand board feet. May closed at $314 and July at $313. The U.S. Commerce Department announced its duties on Canadian softwood lumber imports and while that might have suggested tighter supplies, the adjustments may or may not be imposed. Decisions by the U.S. International Trade Commissions may be on or about May 6th as to whether or not to impose the tariffs. We should see some activity early this week in the cash markets to determine the next direction for lumber but as I had suggested in prior commentaries, on the basis of my expectations for the housing market, I look for prices to continue to decline to the $250-275 level for the nearby contracts coming into spring/summer 2002. Due to the thinness of this market, only well capitalized accounts should trade this market.

John L. Caiazzo

www.acuvest.com

E-mail: futures@acuvest.com

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