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(March 20, 2002) COCOA: More liquidation in quiet trade. No news of consequence. Open interest has been on the decline on this last leg higher, suggesting that upside may be over or nearing an end. The chart is becoming negative. That said, if the funds continue to come in as buyers, cocoa is likely headed higher. But I regard that buying as a big "if." Cocoa prices have nearly doubled on talk of production cuts, but those cuts remain a bit elusive. Depending on who you're talking to, cocoa production has been cut or not. Keep an eye on the charts as your guide.

M. Steven Morgan
www.commodityreview.com

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