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(March 14, 2002) COCOA: Talk has begun to circulate that Bahia is seeing a smaller crop versus last year. Bahia produces about 85% of Brazil's cocoa crop. Brazil is the number five producer.

Traders are keeping an eye on the Ivory Coast mid crop for signs that supply or quality problems exist. The main crop is thought to have come in around 1.05 MMT versus average production of 1.2 MMT. Still, it remains to be seen if a .15 MMT cut justifies a near doubling of price. What may also be a supportive factor for cocoa is if the Euro continues to strengthen. I remain non-committal to the cocoa and am waiting for signs of topping.

M. Steven Morgan
www.commodityreview.com

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