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CROP PRODUCTION

All Cotton Production Down Slightly From November
All Orange Production Down 4 Percent From October

(December 12, 2000) All cotton production is forecast at 17.4 million 480-pound bales, down less than 1 percent from last month, but up 3 percent from 1999. Yield is expected to average 619 pounds per harvested acre, down 3 pounds from last month. Survey and ginnings data indicate a 200,000 bale decrease in Texas production from the November forecast, which more than offset a 150,000 bale increase in California. On November 26, U.S. harvest was 85 percent complete, the same pace as both last year and the 5-year average.

The U.S. all orange December 1 forecast of the 2000-01 crop is 12.6 million tons, down 4 percent from both October and last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 229 million boxes (10.3 million tons), 5 percent below the October forecast and 2 percent less than the 1999-2000 crop year. The weather since the beginning of October has been drier than normal. Constant irrigation was needed to maintain good tree condition. Water reservoirs are at very low levels. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), a 6 percent decrease from October. If realized, this production will be 5 percent lower than the previous season. Fruit size is considerably smaller than originally projected and may end up as the smallest in the last ten years. A near record low fruit drop is projected, which will partially offset the smaller fruit size. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 102 million boxes (4.59 million tons), is down 3 percent from October, but is 3 percent higher than last season's final utilization. The Valencias also have smaller fruit size and a low drop rate. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the October forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is unchanged at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is virtually the same as last season's yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. Projected juice yield for 2000-01 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production By Use And United States, 1999-00
--	Area Harvested - 1000 Acres		Yield - Net Tons Tons		Production - Net Tons 1000 Tons
--	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000
For Sugar	941.4	971.6	35.7	35.2	33,577	34,238
For Seed	51.9	55.4	33.2	33.5	1,722	1,858
For Sugar and Seed	993.3	1,027.0	35.5	35.1	35,299	36,096
--
Oranges: Utilized Production By Crop And United States 1998-99, 1999-00, and Forecasted December 1, 2000-Y
	Utilized Production Boxes			Utilized Production Ton Equivalent
	1998-99 1,000 Boxes	1999-00 1,000 Boxes	2000-01 1,000 Boxes	1998-99 1,000 tons	1999-00 1,000 Tons	2000-01 1,000 Tons
Early Mid & Navel	134,800	176,140	163,350	5,901	7,618	7,088
Valencia	89,780	126,700	127,700	3,923	5,495	5,555
All	224,580	302,840	291,050	9,824	13,113	12,643
Y--The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year.

November Weather Summary

Heavy rain in the South eased or eradicated long-term drought and benefitted pastures and winter grains, but slowed fieldwork. On the southern Plains, cool weather and soaking early-month rains hampered winter wheat planting and emergence, and cotton and soybean harvesting. Although drier weather after mid-month allowed fieldwork to gradually resume on the southern High Plains, rain shifted eastward, drenching areas from eastern Texas to the Carolinas. However, most of Florida's peninsula remained unfavorably dry, increasing irrigation requirements. Farther north, occasional, generally light precipitation provided only limited relief from a 2-month dry spell from the Mid-Atlantic region westward into the middle Ohio Valley. Precipitation was also below normal in much of California and the Northwest, despite a late-month increase in storm activity.

Between a brief, early-month warm spell and a late-month warming trend, the Nation experienced a very cold November. The coldest conditions shifted from the West early in the month to nearly nationwide by mid-November. As a result, monthly temperatures averaged as much as 15 degrees F below normal in the northern Plains and northern Rockies and generally 3 to 7 degrees F below normal in California and the Northwest. As cold weather settled in, a series of storm systems provided extensive snow cover from the Southwest to the northern half of the Plains, insulating winter wheat from extreme cold in the latter region. Sub-zero temperatures were primarily confined to areas with a blanket of snow, while sub-freezing readings edged into areas as far south as southern California and along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to northern Florida. Direct impacts from the cold were relatively minor; however, and temperatures remained well above the freezing mark in Florida's citrus belt.

November Agricultural Summary

The harvest season ended ahead of normal in the Corn Belt, aided by mostly dry weather. In the southern Great Plains, rain delayed winter wheat seeding, but boosted moisture supplies and assisted emergence. In the central and northern Great Plains, rain and snow increased top soil moisture, but cold weather limited winter wheat emergence. On the Atlantic Coastal Plains, dry weather aided row crop harvest and winter grain seeding early in the month, while rain reduced moisture shortages and stimulated winter grain emergence after mid-month. Fieldwork continued with few interruptions in California and Florida. Some crops remained unharvested in the mid-Atlantic states and Northeast.

Winter wheat seeding slowly progressed, as a variety of winter storms frequently halted fieldwork. Wet weather limited planting progress in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas early in the month, but planting continued with few delays on the High Plains. In Oklahoma, just two-thirds of the crop was seeded on November 12, compared with 97 percent normally planted by that date. Seeding slowly accelerated in the southern Great Plains after mid-month, as wet soils gradually dried enough to support machinery. In the Corn Belt, where rain delays were shorter and less frequent, winter wheat seeding was nearly complete by mid-month. Seeding accelerated on the Atlantic Coastal Plains early in the month and rapidly progressed through the remainder of the month. In North Carolina, planting progressed from 41 percent complete on November 5, to 80 percent complete on November 26. Mostly dry weather aided planting in California, where seeding advanced well ahead of the 5-year average until mid-month. In Arkansas, the seeding pace was ahead of the 5-year average when the month began and remained ahead of normal until late in the month, despite occasional rain delays.

Below normal temperatures hindered emergence and growth of winter grains most of the month. A few fields emerged in the northern Great Plains before mid-month, but frigid temperatures virtually halted emergence after mid-month. In the central Great Plains and Corn Belt, brief periods of warm weather and adequate moisture supplies aided germination and emergence. Frequent rains, some heavy, erased moisture shortages and promoted germination and growth in the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent parts of the southern Great Plains and Southeast. Soil moisture shortages hindered germination, emergence, and growth of winter grains on the Atlantic Coastal Plains until soaking rains eased dryness after mid-month. In California and the Pacific Northwest, the cold weather suppressed growth of winter grains, but moisture supplies were mostly adequate to support development.

The Nation's corn harvest neared completion more than 1 week ahead of normal, with 95 percent of the crop out of the fields by November 12. However, harvest slipped slightly behind last year's fast pace, as increasing storage shortages and occasional rain delays limited progress. Harvest remained active in the Great Lakes region and eastern Corn Belt during the first half of the month. In Michigan, growers harvested more than one-third of their crop during the first 2 weeks of the month. Harvest advanced ahead of normal in Ohio and Wisconsin, where growers harvested 10 and 12 percent of their crop, respectively, during the week ending November 12. Harvest fell well behind normal in North Dakota, where an early-month mixture of wintery precipitation delayed progress. Harvest progressed well behind normal in Pennsylvania also. The harvest season ended ahead of normal in Kentucky and North Carolina.

The cotton harvest was about 1 week ahead of last year and the 5-year average when the month began, but rain and frozen precipitation limited progress, especially before mid-month. Harvest progressed with few delays on the High Plains and gradually accelerated elsewhere in the Great Plains and interior Mississippi Delta after mid-month, as soils and cotton bolls slowly dried. Harvest progress remained ahead of normal in Oklahoma, but lagged throughout the month in Texas. Dry weather aided early-month harvest progress on the Atlantic Coastal Plains, where Virginia and North Carolina growers, respectively, picked 27 and 20 percent of their crop during the week ended November 12. The harvest pace was slower in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, but progress remained ahead of normal throughout the month. On November 26, the crop was 85 percent harvested, equal to last year and the 5-year average. Picking progressed ahead of normal in the Southwest.

Soybean harvest was 95 percent complete on November 5, slightly behind last year's pace, but ahead of the 92-percent average for this date. Harvest rapidly progressed in Michigan, but very little acreage remained to be harvested in the rest of the Corn Belt. Harvest remained active in Arkansas, despite brief rain delays. Dry weather aided harvest progress on the Atlantic Coastal Plains. The sorghum crop was 94 percent harvested on November 5, more than 1 week ahead of last year's progress and about 3 weeks ahead of the average for that date. Harvest was active on the High Plains, especially in Colorado and New Mexico. Rain hindered harvest progress in Oklahoma and Texas until after mid-month.

The sugar beet crop was 98 percent harvested in the major sugar beet-producing states by November 12. Dry weather aided rapid harvest progress in Idaho and Michigan through the first half of the month. Rain interfered with the sugarcane harvest along the western Gulf Coast, but nearly ideal weather aided harvest progress in Florida. The sunflower harvest progressed to 92 percent complete on November 26. Harvest slowly advanced in Colorado, Kansas, and North Dakota due to a combination of rain and snow. The peanut crop was 93 percent harvested on November 26, compared with 96 percent on that date last year. In Texas, harvest continued on the High Plains, but remained stalled in other areas due to wet soils. Wet weather also hindered progress in Oklahoma. In the Southeast, growers completed the harvest, despite occasional rain delays. Harvest neared completion ahead of normal along the Atlantic Coastal Plains.

Cotton

Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.3 million acres, is up 1 percent from last year, but down 20,000 acres from the November estimate. American-Pima harvested acreage, at 172,000 acres, is down 40 percent from last year.

The southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia) experienced dry weather throughout most of November. All states, except Virginia, maintained a harvest pace which exceeded their 5-year average; however, rains during the last week of November resulted in some brief delays to completing harvest. Alabama producers harvested 96 percent of their cotton acreage by November 26, compared to 94 percent on average. On this same date, Georgia reported 86 percent of their acreage harvested, 4 percentage points ahead of average. North Carolina was 6 points ahead of its 5-year average harvest pace and reported 88 percent completed as of November 26. South Carolina reported 92 percent complete on November 26, five points ahead of average. Virginia harvest progressed rapidly during November. Harvest activities had been slow due to cool weather throughout the growing season, which resulted in a slow maturing crop. As of November 26, Virginia reported 84 percent of its cotton acreage harvested, exactly the same as the 5-year average.

Harvest neared completion in the Delta states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) at or near record pace. Louisiana growers completed harvest prior to November 1, while the other Delta states had well over 90 percent or their acreage harvested before November. Rains during November delayed the completion of harvest in these states; however, by November 21, all five Delta states had completed harvest. Data from objective yield surveys show boll weights in Arkansas were ranked sixth in the last 10 years. Louisiana's weight was ranked seventh since 1991, while Mississippi's weight was ranked ninth.

Cotton harvest in the southwestern wtates (Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) progressed slowly during November due to rain and high humidity. Quality and yields were adversely affected by the rainfall. Despite the delays, Oklahoma remained ahead of the 5-year average harvest pace. Texas, which began the harvest season ahead of average, had fallen off pace by mid-November. On November 26, Texas reported 70 percent of its cotton acreage harvested, compared to the 5-year average of 76 percent. Oklahoma reported 81 percent of its acreage harvested by November 26, ten percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Cotton objective yield data indicate Texas' boll weights are ranked ninth in the past ten years.

Harvest progressed ahead of the 5-year average in California and Arizona throughout the month of November, despite rains during the first half of the month. As of November 26, Arizona reported 88 percent of its upland cotton acreage harvested. This was 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. California reported 92 percent of their acreage harvested as of November 26, four percentage points ahead of average. Although the rains had only minimal delays on harvest activities, quality factors were diminished in some areas. Data from objective yield plots indicate California's boll weights ranked ninth since 1991.

American-Pima production is forecast at 409,800 bales, down 6,000 bales from the November forecast, and down 39 percent from last year's output. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,144 pounds per harvested acre, 16 pounds above the last year's record setting yield. Texas' production is up 4,000 bales from the November forecast, while California's production is down 10,000 bales. California harvest was virtually complete by the beginning of December; however, nearly one-third of crop remained to be ginned.

All cotton ginnings totaled 13,657,000 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 13,379,100 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 11,309,550 running bales in 1998.

Florida Citrus

The month of November was one of the driest on record for Florida's citrus belt. Growers and caretakers irrigated around the clock in most areas to maintain good tree condition and promote fruit growth. Lakes, ponds, and water reservoirs are at very low levels and in some locations, completely dry. Most early and midseason fruit have very good on-tree color. Fresh fruit packing houses are shipping navel and mid-season oranges, white and colored grapefruit, tangerines, tangelos, and K-Early Citrus fruit. Most processing plants are open and receiving field-run fruit and packinghouse eliminations. Caretakers are cutting cover crops prior to harvesting and as an aid in fire protection. Limited clean-up spraying is occurring on late season crops grown for fresh use.

Texas Citrus

Grapefruit and early season orange picking are progressing at a normal pace with about one quarter of the crop harvested. Fruit quality has been good, but size of fruit has been smaller than expected. Recent rains received in the Valley should promote fruit size.

California Citrus

Picking of old crop Valencia oranges was completed in November and the harvest of new crop navel oranges gathered momentum. Color and maturity have been good. Picking of lemons and grapefruit was active in southern California. Tangerine harvest was also active in November.

Sugarcane

Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 36.1 million tons, 2 percent above the previous record of 35.3 million tons set last year and 1 percent above the November forecast. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest a record high 1.03 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2000 crop year, 3 percent more than last year's final harvested acres. Yield is forecast at 35.1 tons per acre, 0.4 ton above the November forecast. The yield and production increases were due to a higher forecasted yield and production in Florida.

Louisiana growers expect to harvest a record high 490,000 acres. In Florida, expected acres for harvest are 1 percent below last year's level. Harvest continued with few delays in Florida due to nearly ideal weather. Heavy rains periodically interrupted the harvest pace in Louisiana, Texas, and Hawaii during the first half of the month, but drier weather aided harvest progress after mid-month.

Coffee

Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 9.10 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 2000-01 season, down 9 percent from the previous season. Harvested acreage is estimated at a record high 6,800 acres, up 6 percent from the 1999-2000 season. Coffee production from the island of Hawaii, including the Kona districts, is down from the 1999-2000 season. Relatively dry weather hampered yields on non-irrigated fields. Irrigated fields, however, are expected to have good yields. Harvest started later than usual and the size of the beans is larger this season. The combined production from the islands of Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai is also down. These islands are also experiencing a later than usual harvest and improved bean quality.

December 12, 2000

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA

Washington, D.C.

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