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CROP PRODUCTION

All Cotton Production Down 1 Percent From December

(January 10, 2001) All cotton production is forecast at 17.2 million bales, down 1 percent from last month but up 1 percent from 1999. Yield is expected to average 631 pounds per harvested acre, up 12 pounds from last month. The increase in yield is the result of a reduction in harvested acreage. The most significant production change indicated by ginnings and survey data is a decrease of 150,000 bales of upland cotton in Texas. Fields continue to be abandoned due to the extremely dry weather throughout the growing season, coupled with poor harvest conditions in the fall.

The U.S. all orange January 1 forecast of the 2000-01 crop is 12.6 million tons, virtually unchanged from December's forecast but 4 percent less than last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 229 million boxes (10.3 million tons), unchanged from the December forecast but 2 percent less than the 1999-2000 crop year. This forecast does not reflect any effects of the freezing temperatures that occurred in parts of Florida's citrus belt the last few days of December and the first week of January. All surveys used for this forecast were conducted before the freezing temperatures arrived. The early and mid-season orange forecast remained at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), 5 percent lower than the previous season. Record low droppage rates and the smallest fruit size in the past ten years contributed to the forecast. Approximately 38 percent of the crop has been harvested. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 102 million boxes (4.59 million tons), is unchanged from December but is 3 percent higher than last season's final utilization. The Valencias also have smaller fruit size and the lowest droppage rates in recent history.

The all orange forecast for California, at 59.0 million boxes (2.21 million tons), is the same as projected in October but down 12 percent from the previous season. California's Navel orange harvest is 25 percent complete. The number of fruit is less than last season, but the fruit size is larger than a year ago. The forecast of all oranges in Texas is 2.10 million boxes (89,000 tons), an increase of 5 percent from the initial forecast in October. If realized, it will be 21 percent higher than last season. Arizona's all orange forecast remains at 1.05 million boxes (40,000 tons) but is 5 percent less than last season's utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is unchanged at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, virtually the same as last season's yield. The early and mid-season portion is projected to yield 1.51 gallons per box and the late season Valencia oranges are at 1.62 gallons. These yields are considerably behind the all time records set during the 1998-99 season when the all orange yield was 1.63 gallons, the early-mid-season varieties yielded 1.58 gallons, and the Valencias yielded 1.71 gallons per box.

The pounds solids per box, pounds of unfinished juice, and the Brix are all considerably ahead of last year's off-bloom fruit. This year's fruit are mostly smaller than average size, which generally produce more juice per 90 pound box. These projections of yield are based on the assumption that harvest patterns and utilization by the processors will be similar to the past several seasons.

Crop Summary Area Planted And Harvested 1999-2000 (1,000 Acres)
--	Area Planted		Area Harvested
--	1999	2000	1999	2000
All Cotton	14.873.5	15,536.5	13.424.9	13,097.5
Upland	14,584.0	15,365.0	13,138.0	12,927.0
Amer-Pima	289.5	171.5	286.9	170.5

Cotton: Yield And Production 1999-2000
Yield - (lbs)			Production - (1,000 bales)
Crop And Unit	1999	2000	1998	1999	2000
All Cotton	607	631	13,918.2	16,968.0	17,219.5
Upland	595	625	13,475.9	16,293.7	16,822.0
Amer-Pima	1,128	1,119	442.3	674.3	397.5
Cottonseed Production (1,000 tons)			5,365.4	6,353.5	6,438.6
Oranges Production (1,000 tons)			9,824	13,113	12,647

December Weather Summary

The year closed on a very cold note across the eastern half of the Nation, while a milder weather pattern developed from the Rockies westward. Heavy snow and gusty winds frequently accompanied the cold weather in the northern Plains and Midwest, stressing livestock and hampering rural transportation. Major winter storms struck the South just 2 weeks apart, causing electrical and travel disruptions. Parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma were hardest hit by severe ice accumulations. As the cold weather regime deepened, temperatures fell below 32 degrees F in Florida's northern citrus areas on December 20. Slightly more significant freezes affected all but southeastern Florida on December 31 and January 1, adversely affecting some winter vegetables as far south as the Everglades.

Monthly temperatures ranged from 8 to 14 degrees F below normal in the Midwest and generally 4 to 12 degrees F below normal on the Plains. Cold weather allowed winter wheat to remain dormant or enter dormancy throughout the Plains, Midwest, and Northwest. An extensive snow cover insulated most of the winter wheat crop from harsh conditions. Somewhat milder conditions prevailed, however, on the central High Plains, where a gap in snow coverage helped to keep temperatures closer to normal. Meanwhile, cool, damp weather slowed or halted winter grain development across the South. In contrast, monthly temperatures averaged up to 5 degrees F above normal in portions of California and the Southwest.

Widespread areas of above-normal monthly precipitation were confined to the South-Central states and areas from the Midwest into the Northeast. The return of cold, wet weather to the southern Plains halted the emergence and development of late-planted winter wheat. Meanwhile, unusually dry weather brought renewed drought concerns to the Southeast. The central portion of Florida's peninsula remained especially dry, necessitating increased irrigation for citrus and vegetables. Only light precipitation fell in the Northwest, while little moisture reached California and Arizona.

December Agricultural Summary

Warm, dry weather aided fieldwork in Texas early in the month, especially on the High Plains, where producers continued to harvest cotton, sorghum, and peanuts. Growers also accelerated seedbed preparations, and wheat and oat seeding resumed in areas that were previously too wet.

As mid-month approached, a strong Arctic front crossed Texas, bringing strong winds and freezing temperatures. In central and eastern areas of the state, ice storms downed power lines and damaged peach and pecan trees. The extreme cold had little impact on cotton, sorghum, and peanut harvest activities on the High Plains, but ice accumulations delayed progress in some areas.

The harvest season was nearly complete in Texas by mid-month, with most remaining crops unsuitable for harvest. Seedbed preparation and small grain seeding continued through mid-month where possible, but progress steadily slowed due to poor weather and lateness of the planting season. In central Texas, cold weather and saturated soils prohibited planting and hindered crop emergence and growth of early-planted fields. Weather conditions remained favorable for fruit and vegetable harvests in the Rio Grande Valley, where the citrus harvest remained active. The pecan harvest continued, as conditions allowed.

Dry weather prevailed in the Southwest, aiding cotton and sugar beet harvests, which were essentially complete by mid-month in California. Growers shredded cotton stalks and disced fields to comply with plow-down requirements. Field preparations continued for the 2001 cotton crop. Alfalfa hay cutting ceased shortly after mid-month in most areas, but some fields were green-chopped for silage.

The dry weather also supported seedbed preparation for California's winter forage and small grain seedings, although lack of soil moisture forced some growers to postpone planting. Other growers sowed crops and irrigated fields to aid germination. Warm weather aided growth of early-planted fields, but overcast skies often limited development.

California's fruit growers harvested fruit, pruned trees and vines, and applied dormant sprays. Some orchards were irrigated due to moisture shortages. Grapefruit harvest was active in the San Joaquin Valley, and new crop navel orange harvest continued. Lemon picking was active in southern California. Grape harvest for fresh market consumption was nearly complete by mid-month. Winter vegetables thrived, and some were harvested. Fall broccoli and cauliflower harvests continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Green speciality vegetables were in various stages of harvest, but the lettuce harvest slowed.

In Florida, topsoil moisture was very short across much of the state, but moisture supplies were mostly adequate to sustain development of small grains and cool season forages in the Panhandle. In the peninsula, producers delayed winter grazing of small grains, as drought halted vegetative growth. Orchard caretakers operated irrigation systems to keep trees in good condition, but new growth was limited. Central Florida received precipitation near the end of the month, but rain amounts varied. Most groves received less than 1 inch of rain, and moisture shortages remained widespread at year's end.

Freezing temperatures in northern Florida citrus-producing counties occurred shortly after mid-month. Another cold front brought freezing temperatures into central Florida at the end of the month. Overnight temperatures remained below freezing for several hours in the Florida citrus-producing region, but did not significantly damage citrus trees. However, some new growth may be lost due to the freezing temperatures in areas hit by the lowest temperatures. Vegetable producers ran irrigation equipment to prevent damage to crops due to the cold weather.

A mixture of rain and freezing rain substantially boosted moisture supplies across the Southeast, lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent parts of the southern Great Plains near the end of the month. The freezing rain downed power lines and damaged trees, with the greatest damage centered on Arkansas. In Louisiana, the sugarcane harvest neared completion, despite brief rain delays. Precipitation was scattered and light along the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plains.

Most of the northern Great Plains and Corn Belt received enough snow to protect winter wheat from below-normal, sometimes bitter cold, temperatures. However, strong winds drifted snow and left some wheat fields exposed or poorly protected in the northern Great Plains.

Cotton

Upland cotton planted acreage is estimated at 15.4 million acres, up 15,000 acres from the June estimate, and up 5 percent from 1999. Harvested acreage at 12.9 million acres, was 2 percent below last year due to above average abandonment in Texas. Producers planted 171,500 acres of American-Pima cotton in 2000, down 41 percent from 1999. The reduction in planted acreage led to a 41 percent decline in harvested acreage, as 170,500 acres of American-Pima cotton were harvested in 2000.

Producers in the Southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia) experienced delays in planting cotton during the spring of 2000. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina were slowed due to extremely dry soils. Conversely, North Carolina and Virginia cotton producers experienced planting delays due to rain and lingering moisture. Moisture shortages persisted in parts of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina

throughout most of the growing season. Rains received in some areas quickly evaporated due to hot, dry conditions. The lack of moisture led to the abandonment of some fields. Adequate moisture was received in North Carolina and Virginia; however, abnormally cool temperatures slowed development in some areas. Harvest began in most parts of the region during the middle of September and progressed near average for most of the fall. Virginia and parts of the Carolinas lagged behind average, due to the cool weather which slowed the maturation of the crop.

The Delta states' (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) planted 3.94 million acres, a 5 percent increase over last year. Harvested area totaled 3.88 million acres. Planting progressed smoothly throughout most of the region. Dry weather permitted excess moisture to drain from fields and allowed planting to get into full swing by early May. Above normal temperatures stimulated development throughout the season, but resulted in some deterioration of condition. The rapid development of the crop allowed harvest to progress well ahead of the 5-year average. Louisiana growers were finished picking cotton prior to November 1, while the other Delta states had well over 90 percent of their acreage harvested before November. Rains during November delayed the completion of harvest in these states; however, by November 21, all five Delta states had completed harvest. Data from the objective yield surveys show boll weights in Arkansas and Louisiana were ranked seventh in the last 10 years, while Mississippi's weight was ranked ninth.

Producers in the Southwestern states (Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) were able to maintain a planting pace on par with the 5-year average, despite combating weather delays. Weather conditions during the second half of May allowed Oklahoma cotton producers to stay well ahead of the 5-year average planting rate. Texas producers managed to maintain pace with average, despite extremely dry conditions and high winds. Hot, dry growing conditions early in the season resulted in development progressing ahead of average throughout most of the region. Most areas received rains during late June, easing moisture concerns that had developed during the month; however, the precipitation came too late for some fields which were plowed under and replanted to alternative crops. Extremely hot temperatures and high winds persisted throughout the remainder of the growing season, leading to depleted soil moisture, deteriorating condition ratings, and abandoned fields. Irrigated crops were also under stress in some areas of the Plains due to available water being exhausted at a rapid rate. Harvest began early due to the rapidly maturing crop and was aided by a light to killing frost in early October; however, progress slowed during November due to rain and high humidity. Quality and yields were adversely affected by the rainfall. Despite the delays, Oklahoma remained ahead of the 5-year average harvest pace. Texas, which began the harvest season ahead of average, had fallen off pace by mid-November. Objective yield survey data indicate Texas' boll weights are ranked sixth in the past ten years.

Arizona and California experienced excellent planting conditions throughout the spring of 2000. By mid-May, California planting was virtually complete. Arizona producers had completed their planting by the end of May. The early planting and above average temperatures during June allowed the upland cotton in the West to progress well ahead of average. Irrigation alleviated any concerns associated with dry spells which accompanied the hot temperatures. Mild temperatures during parts of July and August resulted in some delays in crop development, but the early season progress allowed the crop to stay ahead of average. Harvest began on or ahead of normal, despite some rain delays. Although the rains had only minimal delays on harvest activities, quality factors were diminished in some areas. Data from the objective yield plots indicate California's boll weights are ranked ninth since 1991.

American-Pima production is forecast at 397,500 bales, down 12,300 bales from the December forecast, and down 41 percent from last year's output. The U.S. yield is estimated at 1,119 pounds per harvested acre, down 25 pounds from last month. California, New Mexico, and Texas all have a lower production than their December forecast, while Arizona's production is unchanged from last month. The San Joaquin Valley began planting American-Pima cotton in late March, but cool weather resulted in some delays and slowed plant development. The crop progessed well, despite more cool weather during late August. Harvest proceeded ahead of average and was virtually complete by the beginning of December.

All cotton ginnings totaled 16,097,100 running bales prior to January 1, compared with 15,965,150 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 13,159,700 running bales in 1998.

Temples

Florida's 2000-01 Temple forecast remains at 1.80 million boxes (81,000 tons), unchanged from December. If realized, it will be 8 percent lower than the 1.95 million boxes (88,000 tons) recorded last season but equal to the utilization from the 1998-99 season. Average fruit size is below last season and close to the minimum size in the 10 season series. Loss from droppage continues to be above last season and the average of the series.

K-Early Citrus

The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2000-01 is 60,000 boxes (2,700 tons), unchanged from December but 50,000 boxes fewer than last season. Harvest is approximately 50 percent complete.

Florida Citrus

December was a very cold and dry month. The northern parts of the citrus belt experienced below freezing temperatures. Temperatures during the middle of the month were not low enough, however, to cause serious damage to the current fruit crop. Also, most fruit in the northern counties had been harvested before the mid-December cold temperatures arrived. In the coldest locations where there was still fruit on the trees, harvesting crews rapidly moved any cold-damaged fruit to the processors. There has been limited tree damage. A few of the coldest areas may have leaf drop from the frost.

There were very few rains during the month. Most of the growers and caretakers have been irrigating to maintain good tree condition and to improve fruit size. Lakes, ponds, and water reservoirs are at very low levels with some too dry for irrigation use. Harvesting crews have been very active. By the end of the month, some juice plants were overloaded with fruit and had to limit the number of loads delivered from the groves. Most of the fresh fruit packinghouses were very busy packing for the Christmas holidays. Caretakers have been cutting cover crops prior to harvest and for fire protection. Some hedging and topping of harvested groves continued in the coastal and southern counties.

Texas Citrus

Harvest is well underway for grapefruit and oranges with about a third of the crop picked by the end of December. The color, sweetness, and overall quality are excellent for both grapefruit and oranges.

California Citrus

Precipitation has been well below normal in the citrus growing areas. Rain is needed to improve fruit size. Approximately one-fourth of the navel orange crop has been picked and quality is good. However, growers are concerned about puff and crease. The new Valencia orange crop is maturing well and has a good set. Picking should begin in the desert area in late February. Grapefruit harvest was active in the desert area. Fruit size and quality are good. Picking of lemons was active in all lemon growing areas. For the most part, lemons showed good quality, size, and color. In the Central Valley, harvest of Satsuma tangerines was near completion. Minneola and Fairchild tangerines are currently being picked.

January 10, 2001

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA

Washington, D.C.

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