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World Wheat Situation And Outlook

(December 13, 2000) World wheat trade in 2000/01 is estimated at 106.6 million tons, off 4.5 million from last year. Global production is down in large part because of smaller harvest in Australia, China, Kazakstan, and the United States. Bumper harvests among major South Asian producers like India and Pakistan, will not only reduce their import needs but allow them to export. Global consumption is down slightly but is almost 17 million tons more than production.

In early December, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $130 per ton, little changed from last month. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast up slightly from last month largely because of higher imports of wheat for feeding by South Korea. More Canadian exports are offset less from the EU. Supplies of quality wheat have tightened while feed quality wheat is more abundant.

2000/2001 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

--United States up 500,000 tons to 30.5 million due to a higher global imports.

--EU down 1 million tons to 15 million due to the slow export licensing pace and Commission concerns over high domestic prices for both high quality and wheat for feeding.

--Canada up 1 million tons to 19 million reflecting a larger crop.

Selected Importers

--Brazil up 200,000 tons to 7.9 million based on stronger import demand resulting from a smaller crop.

--South Korea up 500,000 tons to 4 million due to increased purchases of Australian wheat for feeding.

--Cuba up 200,000 tons to 1.2 million based on a higher level of consumption.

--Uzbekistan up 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on consumption needs.

World Coarse Grains Situation And Outlook

World coarse grain trade for 2000/01 is projected down nearly 3 million tons to 100.8 million tons, due to larger crops in several major importing countries, especially Brazil and Russia. World production is down 3% as reductions in Eastern Europe and China are only partially offset by bigger crops in the United States, Brazil, and the EU. Global consumption is expected to continue to grow to record levels and global carryout stocks are forecast to fall 25 million tons.

Global corn trade is projected to be off marginally, at 72.4 million tons. U.S. exports are now projected to increase more than 6 million tons from 1999/00 levels, largely because of reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU will remain the largest supplier, although Australia and Canada have larger exportable supplies.

U.S. Gulf FOB prices for corn have risen over the last two months and are now over $90 a ton.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

--United States corn down 1.5 million tons to 55.5 million due to increased competition from Argentina and reduced global imports.

--Argentina corn up 1 million tons to 9.5 million because of a larger 99/00 crop and strong sales.

--Canada barley exports up 200,000 tons to 2.2 million due to larger crop.

--Australia sorghum up 500,000 tons to 700,000 because of increased production.

Selected Importers

--South Korea corn down 500,000 tons to 8 million because of higher expected imports of wheat for feeding.

--Japan corn down 300,000 tons to 16 million replaced by imports of sorghum, which are up 500,000 tons to 2.1 million.

--Brazil corn down 200,000 tons to 800,000 due to projected increased production.

December 13, 2000

Foreign Agricultural Service

USDA, Washington, D.C.

202-219-0515

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