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U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE
Summary
(January 25, 2001) An increase in imports and a decrease in exports in November 2000 resulted in a $1.5-billion surplus for U.S. agricultural trade, down from $1.8 billion in the previous month. From January to November 2000, however, the cumulative surplus rose to $11.2 billion, which is $1.5 billion higher than the same period in 1999. Exports to date of $47 billion were $3 billion, or 7 percent, larger than the past year, while imports were only 4 percent higher.
Exports
Exports to date of bulk commodities were $816 million more than in 1999. This 5-percent gain is attributed to significantly expanded sales of soybeans and cotton, which were large enough to more than offset declines in wheat, corn, rice, and tobacco.
Year-to-date soybean exports of $4.7 billion were $713 million ahead of 1999, an 18-percent jump. Volume climbed by almost 4 million tons, a 20-percent rise. Shipments to China in October and November 2000 were substantially higher than in 1999 for processing into meal and oil. Mexico also imported more U.S. soybeans than the previous year. Soybean prices have retreated back to 1999's low levels after a short recovery earlier in 2000.
Cotton exports in 2000 through November climbed even faster than soybeans--up $915 million from 1999, a 115-percent gain. Volume has more than doubled, with larger quantities shipped to Mexico, Turkey, and Southeast Asia. While export prices were up 18 percent from 1999's low prices, they remain lower than prices in 1998. Abundant world supplies came from strong production growth in the United States, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Brazil.
The 9-percent drop in cumulative corn exports from $4.5 to $4.1 billion was due in part to a 7-percent decline in volume shipped and to lower export prices in the third quarter of last year. Import demand for U.S. corn from South Korea, Japan, and South America fell as aggressive sales by China and Argentina claimed market share. Production in the European Union (EU) and from other exporters also rose, so foreign exports were up as global consumption continued expanding. Export volume in the year-to-date rose significantly from 1999 to Canada, Central America, Turkey, and Israel.
The 7-percent fall in cumulative wheat exports from $3.3 billion in 1999 to $3 billion was reflected in the near 1-million-ton decline in volume. Despite higher export prices than earlier in 2000, the smaller quantities shipped to South America, South Asia, and Russia overwhelmed higher demand from Southeast Asia and North Africa.
Greater export competition from Canada, Australia, Argentina, the EU, and Kazakstan was responsible for the smaller U.S. share of global trade. World wheat production remains strong as consumption demand continues its healthy growth.
The $2.1-billion export gain to date by high-value products was more than twice that of bulk commodities. Red meat and hides and skins accounted for about half the gain. Other major export performers were feeds and fodders, fruits and juices, and vegetables. Meat export gains were largest to Japan, Mexico, and South Korea. South Korea and China led in purchases of hides and skins. The rising exchange rate for the Korean won and the expanding economies of both countries were behind their heavy import demand.
Imports
U.S. imports of foreign agricultural products through November 2000 were up $1.4 billion from 1999, a 4-percent rise. This gain was attributed entirely to competitive imports such as red meats, live animals, malt and non-alcoholic beverages, and vegetables. Although imports of rubber and allied gums were significantly larger, imports of bananas, coffee, and cocoa were down due to depressed prices. Imports from Brazil, the largest supplier of coffee to the United States, were down by $300 million.
The $170-million decline in imports of fruits and juices was attributed to higher U.S. production and smaller purchases from Mexico. Slowing U.S. economic growth in the second half of 2000 and a still-strong dollar underlay the moderation in import growth.
U.S. processed food imports from Canada, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and South Asia in fiscal 2000 more than doubled in value from 1990. These countries supplied $17 billion of U.S. processed food imports in 2000, almost half of all processed imports and 44 percent of all agricultural imports. While the EU was the single largest source of imports in 2000 ($8.6 billion), Canada, Latin America, and Asia are gaining and are not far behind. Imports from Thailand and Indonesia grew substantially because of their depressed currencies following financial crises in 1997-98. India is another up and coming source, especially for nuts, fish, and other prepared foods.
January 25, 2001 Economic Research Service USDA, Washington, D.C. 202-219-0515
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