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WHEAT OUTLOOK

(January 16, 2001) Lower winter wheat acreage and lower ending stock projections strengthen wheat price prospects for the 2000/01 marketing season. However, price strength will be limited by continued large 2000/01 supplies and strong competition in the export market. Projected 2000/01 carryout stocks, at 814 million bushels, are down this month because of an increase of 50 million bushels in feed and residual use. The season-average farm price for 2000/01 is now forecast at $2.55-$2.75 per bushel, up 5 cents on both ends of the range from last month.

Winter Wheat Acreage Drops for Fifth Year In A Row

The Winter Wheat Seedings report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on January 11 provides the first indication of wheat plantings for 2001/02. Winter wheat planted area for harvest in 2001 is estimated at 41.3 million acres. This is down 5 percent from 2000 and is the lowest level since 1971. The seeded area is below many analysts' expectations.

Hard red winter (HRW) wheat seeded area is about 28.9 million acres, down 5 percent from last year. Oklahoma and Texas led the decline, down 700,000 and 400,000 acres, respectively. Colorado and Montana also showed large decreases. These dry conditions delayed seeding progress and slowed emergence. In Texas and Oklahoma, the dry conditions were followed by excessive rainfall that further hindered progress. Emergence is a month behind the 5-year average in Oklahoma causing concern for cattlemen hoping to have wheat pasture for grazing cattle. The Colorado crop is short and poorly rooted leaving it vulnerable to blow out and shallow snow cover. The summer drought in Montana continued into the fall, leading many farmers to reduce their planted acreage. Notable exceptions include Kansas and Nebraska, where growers are expecting to plant more acres than last year. Emergence in Kansas was significantly less than average through mid-November. In Nebraska, moisture supplies were very short to short during planting, but improved as planting neared completion.

Soft red winter (SRW) seeded area is down 6 percent from last year, at about 8.9 million acres. Arkansas, Indiana, and South Carolina have planted acreage equal to last year's area. In contrast to most of the HRW area, excessive soil moisture this past fall in southern Illinois was the cause of slowed planting progress. Wheat farmers in Indiana had an ideal fall season for seeding winter wheat. Dry conditions across most of the Southeast hampered seeding.

White winter wheat seeded area totals about 3.5 million acres, down slightly from 2000. In Idaho, above normal moisture in October was followed by a cold, dry November. Winter wheat seedings ran slightly ahead of normal for most of the state. Weather conditions were also good for seeding wheat in Oregon. The Washington winter wheat season got off to a slow start, however stands look very good, with the majority of the crop in good condition.

Durum wheat seeded area in Arizona and California for 2001 harvest are placed at 160,000 acres. This total is down 14 percent from their final 2000 planting. Seeding in California's San Joaquin Valley progressed rapidly during October and November. Below normal precipitation forced growers to irrigate earlier than usual. Seeding began in the Imperial Valley in late November and will continue into March.

Weather In Plains Is A Continuing Concern For 2001/02 Crop

State Agricultural Statistical Services provide information about the wheat crop in the Central and Southern Plains, where weather concerns continue. In early January, Oklahoma wheat condition has fallen from good to fair condition at the beginning of the December to mostly fair to poor condition by the end of the month. The cold temperatures and freezes have halted wheat growth and some of the late-planted fields have yet to emerge. Late planting of wheat in Texas was mostly stalled as cold and wet conditions prevailed across most of the state. Freeze damage was significant in newly emerged fields. Problems with Hessian Fly remained constant in some areas. Statewide wheat condition was rated at 57 percent of normal compared with 37 percent last year.

In Kansas, the condition of the 2001 wheat crop is rated 4 percent excellent, 43 percent good, 33 percent fair, 16 percent poor, and 4 percent very poor. Only a limited amount of moisture was received across the western half of the state during December and some fields have already required chiseling to stop the topsoil from blowing. In Nebraska, the winter wheat crop rated 1% very poor, 10% poor, 51% fair, 30% good, and 8% excellent. Reports indicated that in the southwest districts, some wheat had been damaged due to the high winds.

Increased Domestic Use Reduces Ending Stocks In 2000/01

The Crop Production 2000 Summary report released by NASS on January 11 pegged 2000 wheat production at 2,223 million bushels, the same as reported in the November Crop Production report.

The December 1, 2000, wheat stocks released in NASS' January 11 Grain Stocks report were down 4 percent from year earlier and below expectations. Projected feed and residual use in 2000/01 was increased to 300 million bushels this month, up 50 million from the December projection. Seed use was reduced 2 million bushels this month because of the reduced acreage of winter wheat.

Ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 814 million bushels, down 48 million bushels from last month and down 136 million from the estimate for 1999/2000. Projected ending stocks, however, are still considerably larger than the recent low of 376 million bushels on June 1, 1996.

Foreign competition continues to keep U.S. exports in check, and wheat exports for 2000/01 are projected at 1,125 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Export projections for HRW and SRW were each reduced 5 million bushels this month, reflecting the sluggish export pace for those classes. These reductions were offset by an increase of 5 million bushels in projected exports of HRS and white wheat, reflecting the relatively strong season-to-date pace of export shipments.

Higher Domestic Use And Fewer Seeded Acres Boost Price Prospects

The projected season-average price is forecast between $2.55 and $2.75 per bushel, up 5 cents on both ends of the range from last month. The increase reflects higher projected domestic use, as well as fewer acres seeded to winter wheat in 2001. Concerns about dry conditions in the hard red winter growing region also provided some strength to the price outlook. However, weak global import demand and large supplies in major competing exporting nations will limit price gains in the coming months.

The preliminary farm price of all wheat in December 2000 was $2.75 per bushel, down from $2.83 reported for November but 23 cents above a year earlier. The preliminary farm price for winter wheat for December dropped 3 cents from the November average of $2.70. Weather during the late harvest damaged the quality of the 1999 durum crop, causing the U.S. average price received by farmers for durum to decline to a seasonal low of $2.42 in October. The farm price of durum rebounded to $2.97 per bushel in November, but the preliminary mid-month price for December is down 73 cents.

The simple average of prices received by farmers for all wheat during the first 7 months of the 2000/01 marketing season is $2.56 per bushel. Sales during the first 7 months of the marketing season averaged about 64 percent of the crop during the last 5 years. If the same percentage of the 2000/2001 crop was sold during this period, prices would have to average over $3.30 during the last 5 months of the marketing year to exceed the projected range of $2.55-$2.75.

2000 Cumulative Payments Less Than In 1999

The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the "nonrecourse marketing assistance loans" (MALs) and "loan deficiency payments" (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with U.S. Department of Agriculture are eligible to participate in these programs.

As of January 10, 2001, LDPs of $776 million had been made on 1,744 million bushels for an average payment of $.45 per bushel for 2000. For 1999, $889 million in LDPs where made on 1,911 million bushels for an average of $.47 per bushel.

For 2000, 167 million bushels were placed under loan. Seventy-seven million bushels were redeemed and received total market gains of $38 million, $.51 per bushel on average. In 1999, the total market gain amount was $47 million on 115 million bushels, an average of $.41 per bushel.

World 2000/01 Production And Use Forecasts
Reduced, Trade And Stocks Little Changed

The world wheat production forecast was reduced 1.5 million tons this month to 579 million. Preliminary official estimates for Russia and Ukraine indicate that more of the grain production was coarse grains and less was wheat than previously thought. Wheat production in the former Soviet Union was reduced by nearly 3 million tons. However, partly offsetting was increased production reported by India where the record wheat harvest in 2000/01 was officially reported at 75.6 million tons, 1.3 million higher than previously estimated.

World wheat production is forecast down 9 million tons from the previous year, with the largest drops in China and Australia. These declines more than offset record production in the European Union, India, and Pakistan. Global production in 2000/01 is expected to be the lowest in 5 years.

Forecast world wheat consumption forecast for 2000/01 was reduced this month by a small amount (0.6 million tons). Wheat feed and residual use in the former Soviet Union was dropped by more than 2 million tons because of a smaller wheat crop and an increase in expected feed grain use. However, partly offsetting that drop was increased U.S. feed and residual use and smaller consumption increases for Australia and North Africa. Global consumption in 2000/01 is expected to nearly match the previous year's record. With forecast world production and consumption changes mostly offsetting this month, ending stocks and trade forecasts were only modified slightly. Increased wheat stocks expected for India were more than offset by reduced stocks projected for the United States and China.

Forecast 2000/01 wheat imports increased this month for Ukraine, because of reduced production, and for Azerbaijan, Morocco, and Tunisia based on the faster than expected pace of imports. However, China's forecast imports were reduced because of the slow pace of purchases. Australia's July/June 2000/01 export forecast increased 0.5 million tons this month because of larger than expected shipments of old-crop wheat. However, expected exports from Ukraine were reduced, partly offsetting, leaving world wheat trade slightly higher than forecast a month ago.

January 16, 2001

Economic Research Service

USDA, Washington, D.C.

202-219-0515

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