OILSEEDS:
WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

(January 12, 2001) The global oilseeds production estimate was lowered fractionally this month to 303.5 million tons. The global oilseeds trade forecast was increased 229,000 tons to 63.1 million tons. Trade changes in all oilseeds were limited this month, with soybean exports showing the largest change of the group increasing 208,000 tons. In sum, the increase in the export forecast for soybeans, along with minor increases in cottonseed and peanut exports were partially offset by decreased sunflowerseed exports. The increase in soybean exports was due almost exclusively to a 200,000- ton increase in the Brazilian soybean export forecast. The small reduction in the 2000 U.S. soybean crop of 201,000 tons was not large enough to impact the U.S. soybean export forecast, which remained unchanged.

World oilseed crush also saw little change, with the 2000/01 forecast increasing 25,000 tons to remain near 251.2 million tons. Increases in rapeseed, cottonseed and palm kernel crush were partially offset by decreases in the sunflowerseed and soybean crush forecast. In Argentina, a 400,000-ton reduction in the current year's sunflowerseed production forecast was responsible for lowering their crush estimate 325,000 tons, to 3.7 million tons.

Global oilseed ending stocks for 2000/01 were increased 345,000 from last month to 27.4 million tons. A decrease in soybean ending stocks was unable to fully counter increases in the stocks of both rapeseed and sunflowerseed.

Global protein meal trade for 2000/01 was revised slightly lower to 55.6 million tons. Decreases in sunflowerseed and soybean meal trade was partially offset by an increase in the exports of palm kernel meal. The forecast for global vegetable oil trade was also lowered to 32.8 million tons. Decreases in soybean oil (98,000 tons), sunflowerseed oil (69,000 tons), and rapeseed oil (125,000 tons) exports outweighed a 200,000-ton increase in palm oil exports. The bulk of the reduction in soybean oil exports are expected to be from the U.S. which is now forecast to export 635,000 tons, only 10,000 tons more than last year.

January 12, 2001

Foreign Agricultural Service

USDA, Washington, D.C.

202-219-0515

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