GRAINS:
WORLD MARKETS AND TRADEWorld Wheat Situation And Outlook
(January 12, 2001) World wheat trade in 2000/01 is estimated down 4.5 million tons from last year to 106.9 million. Global production is down 9 million tons while consumption is almost unchanged. Despite a global stocks drawdown in 2000/01 of more than 17.5 million tons, stocks in the five major exporting countries are down only 4.8 million tons.
Over the past month, wheat prices have increased slightly. Early January export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $135 per ton. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast up slightly from last month because of an increase in imports from the Ukraine and a few other countries. Global production is down 1.5 million tons from last month.
2000/2001 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
--Australia up 500,000 tons to 16 million due to a strong export pace for the first half of the year.
--Ukraine down 200,000 tons to 300,000 reflecting a smaller crop.
Selected Importers
--China down 500,000 tons to 1.5 million based on slow purchases during the first half of the year.
--Morocco up 100,000 tons to 3.1 million based on the strong pace of shipments to date.
--Ukraine up 400,000 tons to 1 million due to a smaller than expected crop.
World Coarse Grains Situation And Outlook
World coarse grain trade for 2000/01 is projected down nearly 3 million tons to 101.2 million tons, due to larger crops in several major importing countries, especially Brazil and Russia. World production is expected to drop sharply as reductions in Eastern Europe and China are only partially offset by bigger crops in the United States, Brazil, and the EU. Global consumption is expected to continue to grow to record levels and global carryout stocks are forecast down nearly 24 million tons.
Global corn trade is projected to be down marginally, at 72.1 million tons. U.S. exports are projected to increase more than 5 million tons from 1999/00 levels, largely because of reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU will remain the largest supplier, although Australia and Canada are forecast to increase exports.
U.S. Gulf FOB prices for corn have continued to rise over the last month and are now approximately $100 a ton.
2000/01 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
--United States corn down 1 million tons to 54.5 million due to increased competition from Argentina and Brazil.
--Argentina corn up 500,000 tons to 10 million because of strong sales from the 1999/2000 crop.
--EU barley up 500,000 tons to 10 million due to continued strong import demand by the Middle East and North Africa.
--United States barley up 100,000 tons to 850,000 because of a strong sales pace to date.
Selected Importers
--Canada corn up 300,000 tons to 1.3 million because of a smaller crop.
--Egypt corn down 200,000 tons to 4.5 million due to a slowdown in purchases.
--Saudi Arabia barley up 600,000 tons to 5.4 million because of a strong pace of imports.
Major Wheat Exporters' Sales Pace Ahead Of Last Year
World wheat trade for the year is currently estimated to decline by more than 4 million tons because of reduced imports by Russia and minimal imports by India and Pakistan which had bumper harvests. However, sales are up 10% in the first half of the year by the world's five major exporters. These exporters are expected to represent 86% of global trade this year. Australia and Canada have posted strong sales as demand for wheat has strengthened. Argentina is more than one million tons ahead of last year's pace owing to strong sales to Middle Eastern markets. Alternatively, the EU is behind pace this year because of concerns over tight supplies of quality wheat and high domestic prices while U.S. sales have strengthened somewhat after an initial slow pace.
January 12, 2001 Foreign Agricultural Service USDA, Washington, D.C. 202-219-0515
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