ALLENDALE, INC.
4506 Prime Parkway, McHenry, Illinois
800-262-7538
(December 23, 2011) LEAN HOGS: We hope this afternoon''s table, shown above, provides a little more clarity into USDA''s, first ever, noontime release of the Hogs and Pigs report. The hog herd was found to be 1.5% higher than last year. That was close enough to the trade''s 1.3% higher average guess that most people called it neutral. Our focus going into the report was actually on the breeding section of the hog herd. Back in September the breeding herd was 0.6% higher than last year. The trade expecting an increase up to 0.8%. USDA indicated the herd not only did not expand, but actually contracted since September. This report will be viewed as bullish by the trade and puts an exclamation point on Allendale''s expectation of a seasonal bottom.
Hog And Pig Results
Source: Allendale Inc. ©2011
WORKING TRADE--(12/21) Bought 1 Feb lean hog future and sold 1 Feb 87.00 call, risking 2.00 from entry, objective 3.50 from entry. Futures bought at 83.50 and settled today at 85.85. Call sold for 1.20 and settled today at 1.82. Current position +1.72.
Rich Nelson
www.allendale-inc.com