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THE WEEKLY RE-LAY

--Stock Indices Fulfill Projected Rebound Into Jan. 23; New Decline Expected On Jan. 26-Feb. 13!

--Gold Also Fulfills Projected Rally Into Jan. 23; Long Positions Exited…

--Jan. 26-Feb. 2 Should See Sharp Drop In Precious Metals!!

--Dollar Attacks 1--2 Year Upside Target (95--96.00/DX; Published In May/June 2014 and Targeted For 2015);

--Euro Attacks Corresponding 1--2 Year Downside Target (~1.1000/ec)…

--Greece Election Results Could Trigger ‘Buy The News’ (After ‘Sell The Rumor’) In Euro…

Beginning 01/24/15 Weekly Re-lay...

Overall Outlook and System Trade(s) Update: Stock Indices rebounded, in line with short-term expectations, and are now at a decisive juncture along with minor cycles on Jan. 23 and 26. They need to head back down to their mid-Jan. lows--without turning their daily trends to up in the interim--in order to elevate their recent declines to a higher degree move down.

Bonds and Notes pulled back but could resume rallying at any time.

The Dollar surged to its primary upside target while the Euro plummeted to its downside target.

The Yen is trying to build a base.

Gold and Silver surged to new 3-4 month highs. Traders should have exited remaining Gold calls w/avg. gains of about $4,600/option for the overall position.

Traders should have exited Cocoa positions w/avg. losses of about $700/contract and be entering short Corn futures positions at current levels.

STOCK INDICES: 01/24/15--1-4 Week Outlook--Stock Indices fulfilled projections for an intermediate bottom on January 15 or 16 (projecting future cycle significance to mid-April) and a subsequent rally into January 23 or 26.

That is when a ~30-degree Cycle Progression comes into play in some Indices (~January 26 + or--1 trading day) and also when a related 18-19 trading-day high-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression recurs in the NASDAQ 100 (~January 23 + or--1 trading day).

The daily trends, 21 MACs, LHRs and weekly resistance levels helped pinpoint the upside targets for these rebounds--17,851-17,951/DJIA, 2057.5-2071.75/ESH and 4272-4320/NQH. All three Indices rallied into Jan. 23 and precisely to these levels, twice neutralizing their daily downtrends in the process.

So far, that is the textbook scenario for a secondary peak and the onset of a new decline. However, Monday MUST confirm that--with lower daily closes. Looking out over the coming weeks, the Indices could set another significant low in mid-February. That would add/perpetuate a corroborating ~60-degree cycle that ALSO comes back into play in mid-April 2015, the primary cycle objective for the first half of 2015.

The midpoint--between the late-Dec. highs and a potential mid-February low--came into play on January 23rd--another reason why a high was likely.

From a price perspective, the S+P and NASDAQ 100 maintain synergistic support right at their mid-January lows (1969.75-1973.0/ESH and 4041-4059/NQH = the corresponding weekly 21 MAC and MARC support levels)--which need to be broken in order to confirm a multi-month decline.

 

Mar Emini S&P
 (ESH)

DJIA (Cash)

Mar Mini ND-100 (NQH)

Monthly Resistance

2113.5-2116.0

18,259-18,341

4357.0-4366.0

Monthly Support

1961.5-1989.0

17,305-17,359

4080.0-4179.0

Weekly Trend

Up

Up

Up

Weekly Resistance

2076.5-2088.7

17,928-17,991

4355.0-4412.0

Weekly Support

1997.5-2011.5

17,346-17,416

4134.0-4179.0

Daily Trend

Down/Neutral (2)

Down/Neutral (2)

Down/Neutral (2)



Short-Term (1-5 Day) Outlook--Stock Indices twice neutralized their daily downtrends as they fulfilled analysis for a low on January 15th/16th and a subsequent rebound into January 23 or 26.

A spike high is still cyclically possible for Monday but the Indices should not close above recent highs. Conversely, they need to close below 17,517/DJIA, 2027.0/ESH and 4190/NQH--in the coming days--to re-enter their daily downtrends and project declines to new multi-month lows.

INTEREST RATES: 01/24/15--1-4 Week Outlook--Bonds and Notes pulled back after surging into Jan. 15/16 and fulfilling intermediate cycle expectations (following their cycle low on Dec. 22-26--the latest phase of a 46-50 day/~7-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression).

The Dec. 24 lows project future significance--and focus--to Feb. 9-13, the next phase of that ~7-week cycle… which may have just been corroborated by the highs of last week. The Jan. 16 peak completed a 23-day rally--the mid-point of a 46-day cycle.

That means that a corresponding 23-day low-high-(high) Cycle Progression also comes into play on Feb. 9-13.

Cycles between previous highs have been corroborating that potential. Bonds and Notes were projected to surge into--and produce an intermediate high on--Jan. 15 or 16, the latest phase of a ~30-degree cycle between highs (most notably, the Oct. 15 and Dec. 16 highs).

Other indicators (the ultimate filters) validated that, including the weekly LHR. They accomplished that on Jan. 16, projecting future significance--and focus--to mid-February, when another intermediate high is most likely (the same time when Stock Indices are likely to produce their next low).

Monday’s action should help clarify if Bonds and Notes are likely to immediately rally to new highs… or wait another week before heading higher. In the near-term, it would take daily closes below 147-12/USH and 128-23/TYH to signal that a larger correction is underway.

Eurodollars also pulled back after fulfilling similar expectations for a surge into mid-Jan.--90 degrees from their mid-Oct. peak. They are holding daily trend support--at 99.26/EDZ--signaling that a rally to new recent highs could soon take hold.

 

Mar Bonds (USH)

Dec Euro$ (EDZ)

Mar-Yr Note (TYH)

Monthly Resistance

147-15 to 148-01

99.23-99.31

128-07 to 128-19

Monthly Support

140-30 to 141-21

98.93-98.97

125-04 to 125-04

Weekly Trend

Up

Up

Up

Weekly Resistance 

151-15 to 151-31

99.32-99.34

130-11 to 130-26

Weekly Support

147-12 to 148-07

99.21-99.23

128-17 to 128-29

Daily Trend

Up

Up

Up



Short-Term (1-5 Day) Outlook--Bonds and Notes pulled back after surging into mid-Jan., with Bonds neutralizing their intra-month trend (for 1 day) while Notes neutralized their daily trend (for 1 day). Both have since re-entered their daily and intra-month uptrends--projecting further upside into month-end.

CURRENCIES: 01/24/15--1-4 Week Outlook--The Dollar Index remains strong and has surged to meet its primary 12-18 month upside objective (95.00-96.00/DX)--powerfully fulfilling an important facet of ongoing analysis, detailed for the past 7-8 months, for an ~18-month surge from May 2014 into late-2015.

With the Dollar Index already attaining this crucial price objective, it shows two (fairly obvious) things…

1--Additional upside is likely before cycles peak in late-2015.

2--An initial peak is likely at this critical upside price target.

If/when the Dollar Index gives a monthly close above 96.00/DX, it would project an additional rally up to 103-105.50/DX--a more extreme, 12-18 month upside objective.

The Euro--in contrast--continues to plummet from its May 2014 cycle high, fulfilling the 1-2 year outlook for a drop to at least 1.1000/EC (from its May 2014 peak near 1.4000/EC). It has spiked to within .0119/EC of that exact level--bringing it into the region of this key price objective.

This weekend’s election in Greece--coming on the heels of all the other events in Europe in January--could pinpoint the culmination of this initial accelerated decline (‘sell the rumor, buy the news’… at least on an intermediate basis)--even though further downside is expected in 2015.

The Yen fulfilled short-term expectations for another pullback, bringing it to a decisive juncture. It twice neutralized its daily uptrend (needing a daily close below .8417/JYH to reverse that trend to down)… while spiking back into the month-opening range--two signs that set the stage for a pullback low.

Since then, it triggered a daily 2 Close Reversal higher while re-entering its intra-month uptrend and its daily uptrend. Those factors should spur a rally into month-end and up to new recent highs.

 

Mar Dollar (DXH)

Mar Yen (JYH)

Mar Euro (ECH)

Monthly Resistance

92.05-92.97

.8571-.8663

1.2345-1.2385

Monthly Support

88.80-89.23

.8084-.8127

1.1869-1.1906

Weekly Trend

Up

Down/Neutral (2)

Down

Weekly Resistance

96.34-96.75

.8567-.8637

1.1488-1.1533

Weekly Support

93.23-93.56

.8385-.8427

1.0969-1.1041

Daily Trend

Up

Up

Down



Short-Term (1-5 Day) Outlook--The Dollar and Euro have attained primary 12-18 month price objectives--ushering in a decisive period. The Yen is showing signs of building a base and could see a more significant advance into/through February.

INFLATION MARKETS: 01/24/15--GC/SI: 1-4 Week Outlook--Gold and Silver are fulfilling much of what was expected from a multi-month rally stemming from intermediate cycles that bottomed on Nov. 3-7. They could still see additional upside--in the coming weeks--although an intervening pullback is becoming a bit more likely.

Gold and Silver both attacked (and held) their weekly LHRs last week (Jan. 16)--signaling that an intermediate high could be on the horizon. That indicator, as well as a preceding LHR test in Gold, a 90-degree cycle and a rebound target reinforced analysis for a peak by/around Jan. 23.

A few things to watch in the next 1-2 weeks (Monday’s trading could convincingly show what is realistic and what might even be imminent):

--With the recent lows on the first day of the month (Dec. and Jan.), it is possible that Gold and Silver could repeat this pattern and create a spike low--after a brief pullback--on February 2.

--If the Jan. 22 high holds, a 50% drop (in time) would also project a low on Feb. 2.

--A ~30 and ~60-degree cycle--that includes highs on July 10, Aug. 8, Dec. 9 and the low on Nov. 7--could produce a high on Feb. 9 or 10.

--Feb. 9/10 is also the completion of the first 40 days (‘period of testing’) of 2015. I have discussed this concept for many years and it is just one--of many--periods to watch IF there is accompanying synergy.

--Feb. 9/10 is also the completion of a daily low-high-(high) Cycle Progression IF the Jan. 22 high is not exceeded this week.

Since a lot of this hinges on Gold entering an immediate pullback, I will wait until after Monday’s trading to elaborate… if still applicable.

The XAU rallied to 2-3 month resistance, which includes its monthly trend-neutral point (~82.50) and a powerful range of ‘support turned into resistance’ at 79.73-83.27/XAU. That range includes the lows of mid-2013, late-2013 and mid-2014. The XAU would need to give a weekly close above 83.27 to escalate this corrective rebound into more of an impulse wave higher.

Platinum rallied to the convergence of weekly LHR resistance (1281.0/PLJ), 4th wave of lesser degree resistance (1296.2/PLJ) and daily LHR resistance as it twice neutralized its weekly downtrend.

That sets the stage for a pullback into the next phase of a very consistent 38-39 day high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that comes into play on January 30.

Palladium consolidated--but remains negative--after turning its daily and intra-month trends down last week. That comes after it failed to turn its weekly trend up--signaling the end of the preceding rally (mid-Oct. into mid-Dec.) and the onset of a new decline.

Palladium could see some sideways trading after dropping into mid-month and generating the 3rd (out of the last 4) intra-month lows on the 16th or 17th of the month.

The combination of weekly and daily trend signals--and the negative pressure from the weekly 21 MAC--could ultimately lead to new lows in Palladium… and then in all the Precious Metals. If Palladium gives a weekly close below 746.00/ PAH, it would turn the intra-year trend down and confirm the bearish outlook… and likely extend this decline into mid-April.

Copper remains in an all-out downtrend that has been expected to ultimately carry it lower into Feb. 2015--the next phase of a 20-month low (Feb. 2010)-low (Oct. 2011)-low (June 2013)-low (Feb. 2015) Cycle Progression. This has been the outlook for almost 6 months… and has nearly been fulfilled.

~2.3500/HG is a major, multi-year HHL projection that could help produce a bottom in Copper.

 

Feb Gold (GCG)

Mar Silver (SIH)

Monthly Resistance

1232.6-1238.9

17.080-17.355

Monthly Support

1135.6-1141.7

14.000-14.155

Weekly Trend

Down/Neutral (2)

Up

Weekly Resistance

1310.4-1326.7

18.740-18.915

Weekly Support

1272.1-1276.9

17.630-17.860

Daily Trend

Up

Up

 

Mar Soybeans (SH)

Apr Crude (CLJ)

Monthly Resistance

1062.0-1068.2

61.82-62.64

Monthly Support

971.0-985.7

45.46-46.88

Weekly Trend

Down/Neutral (2+)

Down

Weekly Resistance

985.2-992.5

48.26-48.97

Weekly Support

951.5-960.2

44.38-45.02

Daily Trend

Down

Down



Short-Term (1-5 Day) Outlook--Gold and Silver fulfilled expectations for a surge beyond mid-month and did set spike highs this past week--with Gold peaking precisely at intermediate resistance at 1298.4-1309.4/GCG. That could usher in a pullback to 1256-1262/GCG in the coming weeks.

1-4 week traders should have exited the second ½ of Feb. Gold 1225.0 call options--entered at an avg. of 6.80 points during the buy signal at 1172.7-1178/GCG--w/avg. gains of about $6,100/option.

The other ½ should have been exited at 35-41.0 points w/avg. gains of about $3,100/option, resulting in an overall avg. gain--for the entire position--of about $4,600/option.

Grains

Soybeans, Corn and Wheat declined further, reinforcing the weekly downtrend in Soybeans…and expectations for Soybeans (and possibly Corn) to wait until March 2015 before setting a final bottom.

On an intermediate basis, Soybeans are creating a scenario in which an intervening high could take place around Feb. 10-12th and usher in a final decline into late-March.

That would be most likely if they extended the current decline and bottomed in the first 1-3 trading days of February (just as they have done in each of the last 4 months) and then rebound for 4-5 trading days (just as they have done in each of the last 3 months).

Soybeans are testing monthly support (although this is occurring after mid-month, when that support begins to lose significance)--a level that needs to be broken in order to extend the current decline.

Corn remains in a weekly downtrend--as well as a daily and intra-month downtrend--and rebounded to test and hold the low of its month-opening range. In most cases, that pattern triggers a subsequent drop to a new intra-month low. Monday’s action needs to confirm that.

1-4 week traders can be selling March Corn futures at 388.0 up to 403.5. Place buy stops at 413.75/CH.

Energy

Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas and Heating Oil have plummeted for 6+ months--validating the ~3-year cycle high in Crude that projected a mid-2014 peak and a sharp drop into the end of 2014. Crude is attacking a key downside wave objective (~47.70/CL) but maintains its most critical support for 2015 (and beyond) at 33.20-37.15/CL.

That is where the high of Sept. 2000 (the initial peak in its ~10-year bull market), the low of Jan. 2009 (where that overall bull market subsequently found support) and the range projection based on the May-Oct. 2011 decline converge. From a cycle perspective, 2Q 2015 (April 2015 has greatest synergy of cycles) remains a pivotal time when 10-month, 20-month and 80-month Cycle Progressions converge.

On a near-term basis, Crude needs a daily close above 52.27/CLJ to turn its daily trend up and signal that a 2-4 week bottom is in place. Until that occurs, the trends remain down.

Natural Gas spiked to another new low--but did not close below its previous low--reinforcing the fulfillment of larger-degree cycles that projected a drop into Dec./Jan.--perpetuating 16- and 32-month Cycle Progressions while completing a 50% retracement in time (22 months up/11 months down--in January 2015).

That means the January 12th low--that perpetuated a 68-69 day high-high-(low) Cycle Progression--remains intact. A daily--and then weekly--close above 3.200/NGJ is needed to confirm an intermediate bottom.

Special Situation Markets

Cotton remains negative after turning its daily and intra-month trend down on Jan. 14… and proving wrong the near-term expectations for a continuation of its December rebound.

It would now take a weekly close below 57.05/CTH to turn the intra-year trend down and provide the next level of validation to the 1-2 year outlook… for an overall decline into 4Q 2015--when a multi-year bottom is most likely.

If it fails to provide that weekly close--in the next 1-2 weeks--Cotton could see a rebound into a lower high in March 2015 (see January 2015 INSIIDE Track).

Coffee--after reaching and holding its monthly resistance (179.40-186.80/KCH) and the upside target range for the early-Jan. rebound (181.85-185.45/KCH)--has fulfilled expectations for a drop back to its early-Jan. lows. However, it would take a daily close below 160.20/KCH to project further downside. Otherwise, a second rebound could take hold.

Sugar fulfilled its upside potential--testing and holding 16.08/SBH--the monthly LHR and the extreme upside objective for the month of January. This was expected to usher in a pullback and some consolidation… which has since taken hold.

The daily trend pattern will be the ultimate filter and cannot reverse to down until Jan. 27, at the earliest. If Sugar can spike down to ~14.67/ SBH--its weekly HLS and 2-week low--on Jan. 26 or 27, it would set the stage for a secondary low.

Live Cattle has plummeted since setting a secondary high in the opening days of January--validating its 6-week cycle and a 50% rebound in time. Similar to Stock Indices, Cattle are steadily validating the culmination of a 40-Year Cycle (and a 70-Year Cycle) of inflationary price advances--while also perpetuating 3, 6 and 12-Year Cycles (all of which projected a Major peak for 2014).

The initial phase (decline) of this transition could last into May/June 2015 and drive prices back down to ~135.00/LC… the level of the mid-2014 low (a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support) and the Dec. 2012 high.

Live Cattle has just given a weekly close below 149.10/LCJ--its August low and a key level of 3-6 month support--further validating this scenario.

Lean Hogs remain weak and continue to fulfill expectations for a Major (potentially multi-year) peak in July/August 2014 and an overall decline into March 2015. They are already testing the primary downside objective for this decline--at 65.50-70.50/LH--a level that was reinforced by the monthly HLS for January (64.20/LHG and 66.75/LHJ).

All of this action--combined with action in Cattle, Crude and Copper--reinforce projections for a bursting inflationary bubble in 2014-2015. Stock Indices are still expected to be next.

Lumber remains on track for an overall decline into May/June 2015. The daily trend will remain down until a daily close above 315.0/LBH.

Cocoa could not extend its recent bounce and signaled the onset of the next phase of its larger-degree move… after testing its monthly LHR in December and the level of the Sept. and Oct. lows (support turned into resistance).

Cocoa has nearly fulfilled the potential for a drop to ~2743/CCH in January (the monthly LHR AND the level of the Sept. 2012 high--a critical level of ‘resistance turned into support’) and is expected to ultimately make it down to 2650-2685/CCH--the intermediate HHL objective and a range-projection target.

1-4 week traders should have exited long March Cocoa futures positions around 2876/CCH w/avg. losses of about $700/contract.

@A Cord of Three Strands: 40-year, 70-year and 100-year Cycle Update…

The past week provided three (more) powerful and validating events to the long-term outlook. To give an extremely brief review, Middle East tensions--along with the price of Gold, Silver and most commodities--were projected to peak in 2011 and then enter a multi-year period of contrasting action… before a renewed surge from 2015/2016 into 2018/2019.

All of that was expected to be a precursor to a more significant peak in 2018-2021--a time frame pinpointed for Middle East/Arab Unity AND European Unity (with a strong possibility for overlap between the two).

That was forecast to be preceded by a tumultuous period--with a real European/Euro crisis building into 2015--ushering in the perceived (it’s all about perception!) need for unity…and the willingness to make national concessions in order to achieve that unity.

Entering into 2015, acceleration was expected… and was quickly witnessed. The Euro accelerated its decline--on diverse concerns ranging from Greek and ultimately British elections to the recent terrorist attacks in France. And then, in the period of 3-5 days, the following occurred:

--Call for unified European/Arab anti-terror alliance. (Hmmmm. Europe/Arab Union? HMMMMM…)

--Death of King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia (see analysis on ‘Syria and Saudi’s Swan Song in 2016’)… at a time when Saudi Arabia has allowed itself to be placed in a precarious position.

--Resignation of pro-American Yemeni President.

Let’s connect a few more dots. Cycles project Arab and Europe Unity (individually or together) in 2018-2021. Published expectations have been that turmoil and upheaval--in Europe and the Middle East around mid-decade--would precede (and expedite) those unifications.

Cycles have pinpointed 2015-2016 as the prime period for multiple crises (ushering in ‘The Golden Year’ of 2016--when Gold is expected to embark on its next sustainable advance)--in both realms, even as market cycles projected a sharp drop in oil prices for the second half of 2014.

And serious trouble (overthrow? Political shift??) is expected for both Syria and Saudi Arabia in 2016 (beginning in 2015).

Here’s where we do some connecting…

Saudi Arabia is allowing oil prices to plummet--re-exerting their economic might while steadily triggering resentment from nations like Russia and Iran, who are entering a period of serious economic pain due to plummeting oil prices.

Syria has been identified as ‘ground zero’ for ISIS/ISIL and all the terrorist training linked to attacks, beheadings, etc. of recent years. Native citizens of one nation (e.g. France) head to Syria--via Turkey--to receive terrorist training for a few months… and then head back to their homelands (again, via Turkey… another nation with ominous cycles on the 3-5 year horizon) to perpetrate attacks on their own countries.

That puts Syria in the cross-hairs of a growing number of impacted nations. But, Syria makes up the third prong of a three-pronged trio of Middle East ‘agitators’ (each with its own diverse objectives)--Russia, Iran and Syria (another similarity to 1973/1974)--all of which are being backed into a corner.

At the same time, and after recently exerting that they could deal with oil prices as low as $25/bbl due to the economic War Chest they have built up in recent years, Saudi Arabia is entering another transition in leadership… at the culmination of a precise 40-Year Cycle.

The leader who steered them through both ends of the Persian Gulf War (1990/91 through 2003-2005), repercussions from 9/11 and the Arab Spring is now gone. And that ushers in the ‘ideal’ time for renewed attempts--from antagonists--to disrupt the ‘House of Saud’.

And all of this is occurring exactly 40 years from a tumultuous time in Saudi’s history--in 1975-1982 (and exactly 70 years from when Ibn Saud forged a powerful alliance with America in 1945)--that began with the assassination of Crown Prince Faisal.

That 40-Year Cycle--from 1975--was reinforced when King Fahd suffered a debilitating stroke in 1995, the 20-year mid-point of that 40-Year Cycle. And, that 20-Year (Half-) Cycle was reinforced when King Fahd died in 2005, the 10-year mid-point of that 20-Year (Half-) Cycle.

With these profound 40-Year and 70-Year Cycles reaching fruition in 2015, could Saudi Arabia enter another tumultuous, 7-year period… similar to 1975-1982?

The single best--and fastest--way to bring about a recovery in oil prices, since a recovery in global economic activity and demand could take years, is to threaten supply. And, one of the single biggest suppliers is Saudi Arabia. And, that trio of agitators is known for repeatedly fomenting upheaval across the Middle East.

How long is it before terrorism or a second season of ‘Arab Spring’ lands on Saudi’s doorstep?

Oh… and if 2015 and 2016 even come close to fulfilling expectations--the clamoring for ‘Unity’ is likely to become deafening from 2016 on. Kinda places the events of the past week in a slightly different/expanded perspective…

…End 01/24/15 Weekly Re-Lay

January 24, 2015
Eric S. Hadik, Editor
INSIIDE Track Trading
P.O. Box 2252, Naperville, Illinois
630-637-0967
www.insiidetrack.com


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